The Republican primary season is turning into a fascinating one. Most know that this election is unique in our lifetime in that no incumbent or vice president is running. Since the current administration is Republican this fact impacts them to a greater degree. Normally they would have the edge going into this election. But that is not the case largely due to W being viewed as a poor president. The Republican candidates are dividing up into fiefdoms within the party; each vying for a constituency attracted to their strengths. This in itself is not a bad thing, but it is more like the behavior of Democrats in elections gone by than Republicans. It is traditionally the case where the Republican base rallies around one, maybe two candidates and the bloodletting period is relatively short. That seems to not be the forecast for ‘08. There are three top candidates, Giuliani, Romney and Huckabee and their supporters are almost equally divided nationally. One could even throw McCain in the mix after securing key endorsements last weekend, including one time Democratic Vice Presidential candidate Joe Lieberman. Each has unique support. Giuliani has the support of many moderate conservatives who care less about religious affiliation and more about bad Hajis in the world. Romney is backed by conservatives who see in him a charismatic pro-business leader. Huckabee has the Christian right in his pocket. But the fascinating component is that none of these candidates are hard core conservatives. Some may try to make the assertion they are but this has not been their history. Both Giuliani and Romney were leaders in the Northeast and doctrinal conservatism doesn’t sell well there. Huckabee is more like Jesus’ Christian, supporting the less fortunate such as illegal immigrant rights and running on a strong energy independence platform. McCain has always been a maverick and certainly displayed that in his criticism of Bush’s war plan before ‘07 and his undying support of the surge this year which may play out nicely in the months ahead. Many of these candidates have invoked the ‘Reagan legacy’ but ask any Republican and they will tell you there ain’t much Reagan in this election.

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