Springtime in February
Thursday, December 20th, 2007Rudy Giuliani fell ill in Missouri. As his plane headed back to the Big Apple he became so sick, under doctor’s orders, he turned the plane around to St Louis where he checked himself into a hospital, complaining of flu-like symptoms. Lately it seems his poll numbers are dropping as fast as his temperature was rising.
Giuliani has embarked on a campaign strategy that is unheard of in modern politics. He is foregoing the early primaries and caucuses and centering his attention on states that hold their primaries farther afield. In the first caucus, Iowa, his poll numbers are in the single digits. New Hampshire follows five days later and he has all but written that contest off as well. The benefactor of Giuliani’s absence seems to be John McCain who is surging hard in New Hampshire after significant endorsements over the weekend. New Hampshire has been good to John McCain. He won the primary in 2000 before falling to Rove/Bush dirty tricks in South Carolina.
Mitt Romney holds a lead in the Granite State as he tries to hold McCain off. Exactly a week later comes Michigan. A significant primary with interesting story lines. Mitt Romney’s father was a popular governor in the state back in the 1960s. Giuliani currently holds a narrow lead in Michigan over Romney but the momentum from the earlier contests will certainly be running away from the former New York mayor. South Carolina follows four days later and Huckabee is polling favorably in the first southern state primary. Then comes the basket Mayor Giuliani has put all his eggs into, Florida. The Sunshine State is home to many former New Yorkers and Giuliani is depending on Florida being the springboard that propels his candidacy into what is called “Super Duper Tuesday” on February 5th. On that day 21 states will vote including California and New York. Will Giuliani’s strategy work for him? Can a candidate virtually hibernate during the early primary season and then find springtime in February? This brings us back to the Mayor’s plane ride. Super Duper Tuesday also includes Missouri and it was for that reason that the Mayor was sick in St Louis, not because his poll numbers were slipping. If his risky strategy fails, he may well be doubled over on February 6th as well.
Early Christmas Present:
Don’t know if my readers are fans of Big Head Todd and the Monsters but they have their new album free to download on their website. I have heard a couple songs from it and it is pretty good. Anyway, here is the link if you are interested in some free tunes: Download
