The surge in Iraq is working…sort of. Part of this is due to US General Patraeus’ strategy to stifle violence in Baghdad; a great military impetus that has wilted militants in the war torn city. The other part is the recognition by Sunnis that Al-Qaeda was not interested in their well being, but instead to a wider goal of inciting civil war, at Iraq’s expense, in order to cripple America’s commitment in the region.

The implementation of the US military’s alliance by necessity with Sunni groups in Al-Anbar has created a long term problem. The US has been arming the tribes there and their power and prestige has risen during this period of optimism and peace known as “The Anbar Awakening”. But like sleeping dogs, sometimes you have to worry what happens after they wake up. The Sunni tribes in Western Iraq have not shown loyalty to the new Iraqi government. Many of those in these Sunni groups were formerly insurgents and some were former Ba’athists, the political party of Saddam Hussein. They may have accepted American assistance for the time being to rid themselves of destructive Al-Qaeda elements but they have not found common ground with the Shia dominated government. The question also arises as to what will happen once Al-Qaeda is no longer present in their sphere. Will the next stage be a renewed war against US interests to remove them also?

In the south the British have left Basra in the hands of local authorities. The British had always played a low key role in security operations in southern Iraq and their handover of authority there has created a power vacuum. Feudalism exists in the land south of Baghdad to the Persian Gulf as numerous factions vie for control of the oil rich territory. The significant entities jockeying for power are the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) party run by Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim. Al-Hakim is said to be the most important figure in Iraq who doesn’t hold a political position in the government. Al Hakim is the last survivor of a family of nine boys. Seven were murdered under Saddam Hussein’s government and the eighth was killed in a car bomb blast in 2003. Al-Hakim met with President Bush this month. The US is working closely with him since they view him as a moderate. Al-Hakim is closely aligned with the moderate cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. ISCI  groups reside both within the Iraqi Security forces and as separate militias outside of it. These units are collectively called the Badr Brigades and are considered the armed wing of ISCI.

The second faction in the south is led by Moqtada al-Sadr, whose Mahdi Army militia is an influential force not only in the Shia dominated south of Iraq but also in the mixed areas farther north. Al-Sadr is the son of the Grand Ayatollah Mohammed Mohammed Sadeq Al Sadr who was murdered by Saddam’s men. Moqtada has gained acclaim for supporting the poor in Iraq. His militia, known as the Mahdi Army, has often clashed with the US military throughout the war. Defining his skills as a politician, Sadr has gone back to school to attain the religious title of ayatollah. Ayatollahs have significant authority in Shia Islam. They are able to issue fatwahs (religious rulings) and not have to defer to higher clerics. Al-Sadr already has political assets in the new Iraqi government which enhances his prestige. Al-Sadr has become a bit of a Doppelganger since he can pose as a fighter of foreign imperialists, of Sunni militias, of Ba’athists, and a champion for the poor.

The final entity in southern Iraq is the Islamic Virtues Party or Fadhila Party. Despite the fact that the Fadhila Party was formed from a student of Moqtada Al-Sadr’s father, the Fadhila Party is actually now a rival of the Mahdi Army. The one single thread that ties all the factions together in Shia dominated southern Iraq is conservative Islamic Fundamentalism. Taking their cue from Iran, the various factions in the south have installed a strict Sharia’ based law code throughout the region. The wild card in the region is Iran. Iran wishes to greatly influence the discussion in Iraq. They have armed various Shia factions and have often worked to weaken the sway of the United States commitment in Iraq.

The final region in Iraq is the Kurdish North. I will address their significant problems in the coming days.

Compounding the situation is the role of the national government in Iraq which seems to be toothless in their ability to influence things in either the Sunni dominated Al-Anbar province or the multi-factional Shia dominated south. What this holds for the US occupation is not known. In some ways it appears the US military is but one other faction vying to influence the course of events in Iraq.