Jaded Sage:

Rudy Giuliani fell ill in Missouri. As his plane headed back to the Big Apple he became so sick, under doctor’s orders, he turned the plane around to St Louis where he checked himself into a hospital, complaining of flu-like symptoms. Lately it seems his poll numbers are dropping as fast as his temperature was rising.

Giuliani has embarked on a campaign strategy that is unheard of in modern politics. He is foregoing the early primaries and caucuses and centering his attention on states that hold their primaries farther afield. In the first caucus, Iowa, his poll numbers are in the single digits. New Hampshire follows five days later and he has all but written that contest off as well. The benefactor of Giuliani’s absence seems to be John McCain who is surging hard in New Hampshire after significant endorsements over the weekend. New Hampshire has been good to John McCain. He won the primary in 2000 before falling to Rove/Bush dirty tricks in South Carolina. Mitt Romney holds a lead in the Granite State as he tries to hold McCain off. Exactly a week later comes Michigan. A significant primary with interesting story lines. Mitt Romney’s father was a popular governor in the state back in the 1960s. Giuliani currently holds a narrow lead in Michigan over Romney but the momentum from the earlier contests will certainly be running away from the former New York mayor. South Carolina follows four days later and Huckabee is polling favorably in the first southern state primary. Then comes the basket Mayor Giuliani has put all his eggs into, Florida. The Sunshine State is home to many former New Yorkers and Giuliani is depending on Florida being the springboard that propels his candidacy into what is called “Super Duper Tuesday” on February 5th. On that day 21 states will vote including California and New York. Will Giuliani’s strategy work for him? Can a candidate virtually hibernate during the early primary season and then find springtime in February? This brings us back to the Mayor’s plane ride. Super Duper Tuesday also includes Missouri and it was for that reason that the Mayor was sick in St Louis, not because his poll numbers were slipping. If his risky strategy fails, he may well be doubled over on February 6th as well.

Early Christmas Present:

Don’t know if my readers are fans of Big Head Todd and the Monsters but they have their new album free to download on their website. I have heard a couple songs from it and it is pretty good. Anyway, here is the link if you are interested in some free tunes: Download

The Republican primary season is turning into a fascinating one. Most know that this election is unique in our lifetime in that no incumbent or vice president is running. Since the current administration is Republican this fact impacts them to a greater degree. Normally they would have the edge going into this election. But that is not the case largely due to W being viewed as a poor president. The Republican candidates are dividing up into fiefdoms within the party; each vying for a constituency attracted to their strengths. This in itself is not a bad thing, but it is more like the behavior of Democrats in elections gone by than Republicans. It is traditionally the case where the Republican base rallies around one, maybe two candidates and the bloodletting period is relatively short. That seems to not be the forecast for ‘08. There are three top candidates, Giuliani, Romney and Huckabee and their supporters are almost equally divided nationally. One could even throw McCain in the mix after securing key endorsements last weekend, including one time Democratic Vice Presidential candidate Joe Lieberman. Each has unique support. Giuliani has the support of many moderate conservatives who care less about religious affiliation and more about bad Hajis in the world. Romney is backed by conservatives who see in him a charismatic pro-business leader. Huckabee has the Christian right in his pocket. But the fascinating component is that none of these candidates are hard core conservatives. Some may try to make the assertion they are but this has not been their history. Both Giuliani and Romney were leaders in the Northeast and doctrinal conservatism doesn’t sell well there. Huckabee is more like Jesus’ Christian, supporting the less fortunate such as illegal immigrant rights and running on a strong energy independence platform. McCain has always been a maverick and certainly displayed that in his criticism of Bush’s war plan before ‘07 and his undying support of the surge this year which may play out nicely in the months ahead. Many of these candidates have invoked the ‘Reagan legacy’ but ask any Republican and they will tell you there ain’t much Reagan in this election.

Related Articles: Republican Race

I wrote earlier about the “Girl From Qatif” (full story click here). It was announced today that she was pardoned by King Abdullah. I’m sure there were some cranky Islamic judges in the wake of this pardon. I guess Allah’s law makes a mistake once in a while. This is why we need to keep religion away from the mechanics of government.

On our political stage there seems to be one person who doesn’t quite agree with this notion. Yes, that would be the Reverend Huckabee. He graciously presented a Merry Christmas campaign video during the holiday/political season. Though this might delight the O’Reilly crowd, it probably won’t play well with the Jews, Muslims, Hindus, Buddhists, Jains, etc… that populate our country. Oh to hell with them, they don’t vote Republican anyway. My name is Raneesh Patel and I disapprove of this message:

When I teach I often tell my students how national, even international, situations often mirror what occurs with the individual. No clearer case can be made than with the debt. The national debt roared past $9 trillion and the runaway spending continues without check. In essence, the federal government is using its credit card. The sad reality is Americans are choosing to spend like the government is spending, by pulling out the plastic. For the first time since the Great Depression, Americans have a negative savings rate. Credit card debt averages about $10,000 per household today.

              (Click the graph to see a larger image)

The federal government continues to struggle with spending. As I mentioned in a prior entry, the debate over the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) reveals many in Congress would choose to continue the tax cuts and not require there to be offsets for them. There is also the illusion that the wars overseas are necessary and thus do not need to be balanced with taxes. Just like with those who took out adjustable mortgages in the last  half decade, when interest rates are low the debt is manageable but once interest rates rise the result is catastrophic. Such is the case with the national debt. If interest rates rise the amount the government is required to pay rises with it. Making this even more troublesome is the fact that many of our creditors reside overseas and possess forms of government that our current president would rather overthrow than borrow from (if the Neo-con playbook were in force everywhere). Combine all this bad news with the crisis looming over entitlement programs such as medicare, medicaid and social security and it does make for a nasty fiscal cocktail.

The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq are extremely costly. If security is required in the next ten years there, the price tag will continue to burden this country. The Christian Science Monitor reports, “The CBO (Congressional Budget Office) estimates that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan could cost $2.4 trillion over the next decade. Nearly $700 billion of that cost will be interest on the debt to finance the wars.” 

Since taking control of Congress, the Democrats are trying to get Republicans to utilize what is known as PayGo, or Pay-as-you-go, on such issues as the AMT relief and the war but the GOP, usually the party of fiscal responsibility, is running away from their mantra for either reasons of political expediency or to endear themselves to corporate sponsors.

These are issues our nation faces as the election nears. It is time for us to get our fiscal situation in order, whether it be personal or national.

There are new developments in the CIA interrogation case that involved tapes that were erased in 2003. Presidential candidate Joe Biden of Delaware is demanding a Congressional hearing into the destroyed evidence. The Bush White House, fronted by Attorney General Mukasay, are refusing to turn over early information gathered by the justice department. The White House stance is to allow their own entities to investigate any wrong doing. The fox watching the chicken coop can only lead to satisfied foxes. Can an administration that is so secretive and has been known to stretch the boundaries of the law be trusted to be judge and juror over matters of security? There will surely be a showdown over this situation. Stay tuned.

Related articles:

Bush administration: Back off CIA tape probe

Biden Campaign: Welcomes Edwards’ support for special counsel

Nothing reveals the nature of the Republican Party more than the battle going on in Congress. It involves a pesky little tax called the alternative minimum tax (AMT) and the desire to eliminate it. The AMT was introduced in 1970 to ensure that upper income tax payers paid a fair share since many at that time paid no tax at all. The flaw in the tax was it was not adjusted for inflation and now many middle income taxpayers are now forced to pay the AMT along with their ordinary taxes. The AMT applies to most married couples who make between $100,000 and $500,000 with more than half of the revenue generated from the tax being paid by those making over $200,000. All US Congressmen recognize the AMT needs to be done away with but there is a serious problem in doing so. In repealing the tax the government will lose between $800 billion and $1.5 trillion over the next 10 years. That is a heavy hit for a nation that is already $9 trillion in debt. Charley Rangel, a Democratic Representative from New York, has introduced a bill that would do away with the AMT and offset the loss in revenue by eliminating a tax loophole utilized for some time by the uber-wealthy and corporations. This loophole prevents hedge fund managers and other individuals from using offshore tax haven corporations to defer taxes on compensation received for providing investment services. In other words, these entities move money to locations like the Cayman Islands in order to avoid paying their fair share of taxes. Using offshore tax havens is illegal but rarely enforced. The bill entitled H.R. 4351, the AMT Relief Act of 2007 passed the House of Representatives 226 to 193, almost entirely along party lines. It now goes to the Senate where the bill will be hotly contested where the Democrats hold a razor slim majority.

The question you have to ask is why the Republicans are battling the changing of the tax code (offshore tax shelters) when the practice is illegal in order to do away with a tax imposed on upper-middle class Americans? In fact the President, who is threatening to veto the bill is calling the elimination of the shelter a “tax hike”.

“The administration does not believe the appropriate way to protect 21 million additional taxpayers from 2007 AMT liability is to impose a tax increase on other taxpayers,” said the White House today.

First off, I think everyone reading this or knowledgeable about the bill should write their congressmen and let them know they are aware of what is going on. Secondly, when you go vote in November, remember for whom the Republican Party represents. I am amazed as I pass small homes with Republican yard signs or drive by rugged pick up trucks with Republican bumper stickers on them the utter ignorance of their choice of candidates.  Isn’t it obvious the GOP has never had their interest at heart? The current battle going on in Congress is testament to the true character and loyalty of the Republican party.

Related article:

House Votes Minimum Tax Cut, Closes Fund Loophole

House Passes Responsible AMT Relief-Measure Moves to Senate

Hillary Clinton is starting to feel the breath of Barack Obama on her neck, and according to her it may smell like Maui Waui. In the latest attempt to do harm to the Illinois Senator, the Clinton campaign believes we should be concerned about Barack’s teen drug use because the Republican’s will have a field day with it. Despite the fact that his life is well documented in his autobiography entitled, Dreams of My Father, now seems to be the time to present his dirty laundry to the vast majority of voters who just now begin to tune in to the political landscape. I believe it would be a perfect time for the Obama Campaign to reveal to the voters Hillary’s old ties to Barry Goldwater.  Hillary’s father was very stern and she grew up in a conservative world. As a young lady she worked on the Barry Goldwater campaign, wearing the old AUH20 pins. Oh, the mistakes of youth. As the counter-culture was in full swing, should we conclude that Hillary didn’t inhale either with her husband? The nation was capable of looking past the fact that George W was an alcoholic, I think we can look past Barack’s dope smoking years in Hawaii and Hillary’s conservative roots, can’t we?

Posted by JadedSage

Recently I posted that it is necessary sometimes to treat bad people harshly (in this case Al-Qaeda leaders) to extract valuable intelligence. The most senior member of Al-Qaeda to be apprehended was Abu Zubaydah. Zubaydah was the leading recruiter for the terrorist organization and a member of Osama Bin Laden’s (OBL) inner circle. In fact, he was considered the third highest target after Ayman al-Zawahri and OBL, himself. Zubaydah, according to a book by Ron Suskind entitled the One Percent Doctrine, suffers from mental illness. The book also details the components by which the CIA extracted information from him. On last night’s ABC News, John Kiriakou, a retired CIA operative, spoke about the effectiveness of waterboarding in obtaining important information from Zubaydah; information that would ultimately lead to the capture of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the principle architect of the attacks on 9-11, in Pakistan. The extended interview with Kiriakou can be seen on ABC News’ website and is a remarkable 10 part series that goes into detail about Zubaydah’s capture, subsequent interrogation and a remarkable glimpse into CIA operations. It is some of the most fascinating TV you will find. Zubaydah’s personality described by the former-CIA agent is much different than the one depicted in Suskind’s book.

This leads us to the two tapes destroyed by the CIA. What were in those tapes? Was the CIA fearful of disclosing the identities of those doing the waterboarding, like they suggest, or was there information disclosed in the tapes that the CIA or government doesn’t want released? What we do know is Abu Zabaydah was waterboarded on one of the tapes. As I researched information on Zubaydah after hearing the ABC News interview I came across a stunning article by a journalist named Gerald Posner. As I read the article I thought, come on, this can’t be true. Is this guy some kind of conspiracy theorist? Who is this guy? I was shocked by his credentials and background. The article entitled, “The CIA’s Destroyed Interrogation Tapes and the Saudi-Pakistani 9/11 Connection” describes how Zubaydah asked the US to call a member of the Saudi royal family which Zubaydah knew from memory, that of Prince Ahmed bin Salman bin Abdul-Aziz, the nephew of King Fahd. Posner also claims Zubaydah detailed elaborate connections between Al-Qaeda and Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. He fingered key figures in the Saudi Royal family and Pakistan military, persons who would later die of mysterious causes.

As I said in an earlier entry I’m dumbfounded the CIA revealed they erased the two tapes or that the two tapes even existed. Despite the likelihood of detailed hearings over waterboarding and the erasing of the tapes, the chances of us rooting out the truth of what was on those tapes is probably slim at best. If what Posner says is valid about the role of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, it leads to the credence we are chasing our tales in the War on Terror.

Related Articles:

Confessions of Terrorist

The forgotten story of Abu Zubaydah

Posted by JadedSage

Being a History teacher, I may have overreacted when I heard about the latest story from the realm of ignorance.  In case you haven’t, you can let me know if I am the only one with a sense of dismay. Recently Dana Perino, the new White House Press Secretary was on an NPR program when she spoke of not knowing a small sliver of history. An event that nearly stopped the heart beat of every life form on earth. She did not know about the Cuban Missile Crisis. Chris Matthews on his MSNBC show Hardball said it best when he excoriated the Bush White House for not having a historical compass.  In the shadow of the recent talk of bombing Iran for having a nuclear program (which the NIE said was halted in 2003), it seems that those in the White House should know about the one incident that defines the dire possibilities that could flow from such an act or, from their vantage point, where the dangers of a nuclear Iran could ultimately lead. The amazing and ironic component of this story is Dana Perino has a minor in both political science and Spanish. The following is the excerpt from the NPR program on which she appeared.

MS. PERINO: I had a situation the other day when they said President Putin thought that our missile defense program was like the Cuban Missile Crisis, and so I got asked about the Cuban Missile Crisis, and I was - panicked a bit because I really know about nothing - (chuckles) - about the Cuban Missile Crisis.

MR. BLOUNT: It was just last week.

MS. PERINO: It had to do with Cuba and missile, I’m pretty sure.

MR. SAGAL: Yeah, it had to do - it did in fact have to do with Cuba and missiles, Dana.

MS. PERINO: Yeah, so I’ll have to get back to you on that.

MR. SAGAL: Really? Like, "I have to go Google this…"

MR. ROCCA : It’s a tropical drink. You should try it on spring break.

MS. PERINO: Well, I came home and I asked my husband -

MR. SAGAL: Yeah?

MS. PERINO: I said, wasn’t that like the Bay of Pigs thing?

MR. SAGAL: (Gasps.)

MS. PERINO: And he said, "Oh, Dana."

Full excerpt

From time to time people ask us where our ancestors are from. We will rattle off the nationalities that we know, usually thinking about our last name and our mother’s maiden name. But what about the nationality of our great grandparents or their parents. Sometimes the nationality of our grandmothers are lost or forgotten. Science has found a way to repair these holes. There have been significant strides made in the field of genetic mapping.  A company in Utah now offers to do genetic maps of your DNA and pinpoints from where your ancestors came.  Recently, I was watching a Nightline episode that detailed the entire story of this process.  For $150.00 your entire history can be revealed. Click on the link below and be sure to watch the embedded video

ABC News: Nightline

Related link: National Geographic Genographic project

GeneTree: The DNA mapping service mentioned above