Jaded Sage:

During these days our military in Iraq is executing Operation Phantom Phoenix. Al-Qaeda has fled Baghdad for the most part and order has been restored by US forces and Sahwa (awakening) brigades, made up of local armed residents. The improved security has enabled US forces to go after the locations where Al-Qaeda has fled. This year I have had the opportunity to talk to a three tour Iraq War vet. He informed me the terrorists used palm groves and animal pens as hideouts to avoid contact. As part of the current operations, the US has employed 18 tones of bombs to destroy suspected jihadists in a swath of date palm groves near Arab Jabour.

This area southeast of Baghdad is predominantly Sunni. The places where Al-Qaeda can flee is narrowing. Some have said this may be the last significant battle that needs to be fought against AQI (Al-Qaeda in Iraq). Diyala Province, north of Baghdad, is also included in the offensive. The most important city there is Baqouba which AQI has termed the “Capital of the Caliphate”. The endgame in terms of the famed organization in Iraq appears to be at hand. This is just one component of the war but it is an important one. If we want to leave Iraq, we need to see the sectarian hostilities in the country die down. AQI has been fueling that tension and their removal is vital to tamp down hostilities.

______________________________________________

I have just completed a book entitled House to House. It tells the true story of an American Army sergeant during the Battle of Fallujah in 2004. Anyone who is determined to go to war on the notion that the enterprise is glorious and exciting should read this book. It reads like a horror story and defines the core nature of war. I have read hundreds of accounts of men in war and this book shocked me like few have.

What a strange night. The talking heads seemed to be reeling as the early returns for the Democratic Party began to come in. As the numbers solidified the pundits got even goofier. The polling data did not align with the results. It had everyone discombobulated; even me. I thought the primary last night was a forgone conclusion. I thought it would be anti-climactic. Nothing should surprise me in politics anymore. So now the stars are realigned and the race is again a crap shoot. I should be excited but I am so prepared to turn the page of petty politics that have gripped this country for the past four decades that the results of the New Hampshire primary have left a sour taste in my mouth. Yesterday when Bill Clinton went on the attack over Obama’s stance on the Iraq War I wanted to reach through the tv screen and throttle him. It reminded me of a parent of a college student who calls up the professor to complain about their child’s grade. It is one thing for the former president to speak on behalf of Hillary’s  campaign, it is another for him to attack her Democratic opponent. It was just an example of why we need to move on. The big question of the night has to be how could the polling data be so wrong in such a small state? It is time to grab the pitch forks and the torches and track down Zogby and Rasmussen. Does anyone but me see a little symbolism in the following video? Is the older lady Hillary? Does the fire represent the above pollsters or the debacle of the outcome? You decide.

__________________________________________________

Did anyone hear John McCain’s acceptance speech last night? It had to be the worst speech in modern political history. I’m not exaggerating when I say he has less ability at giving speeches than George W. I like McCain but I don’t think I could go through four or even eight years listening to this.

Compare that to Barack Obama’s speech he gave last night.

New Hampshire is a very independent minded state. The “Granite State” was the first colony to declare independence from England. Since those colonial times the state has taken taxation seriously. Their license plates proudly boast, “Live Free or Die”. Every four years those who come to court New Hampshire must win over the masses of independents in the state and this election cycle is no different. There is an interesting dynamic however going into tomorrow’s first in the nation primary. The independents are flowing toward Barack Obama. If he was not running, those same independents would surely vote for John McCain.  In this primary, the electorate is turning blue; blue as in Democratic. The loser may well not only be Hillary Clinton but also John McCain. He is in a hotly contested race against the former governor in the neighboring state of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney and McCain have historically received support from independents. The phenomenon known as Obamamania is serving like a vacuum cleaner for those votes. McCain is currently polling above Romney but if the Senator from Arizona should end up losing in New Hampshire he can blame someone not in the Republican primary, Barack Obama. This is one surge that McCain surely doesn’t support.

New Hampshire is Turning Blue

Many ask why so much effort is put into campaigning in Iowa. Like a demented scene in “Music Man” the candidates meander through the cornfield laden counties of Iowa during the hottest months to crowds that would seem insignificant in other, more populous states. But the dividend is enormous. For Barack Obama, winning Iowa has served as rocket fuel. Obama is bucking convention. Iowa, a state made of 95% white citizens, propelled him to victory. Now on the eve of the New Hampshire primary the momentum of Iowa is carrying the day and the Clinton campaign is left reeling. Hillary Clinton once approved of the primary schedule because her air of invincibility would propel her forward quickly from Iowa to New Hampshire. That desire has backfired and the schedule has instead benefited Barack Obama. Prior to the Iowa Caucus, Obama trailed Clinton marginally. Just after the vote they polled evenly at 33%. In today’s latest polls Obama has surged ahead by 13 percentage points. The Clinton team has now opened up a strategy that attempts to pull Obama down by singling out his voting record in an attempt to diffuse the tsunami. Unfortunately for them, Obama doesn’t have a long history in the Senate from which to use as ammunition. In past elections, senators have had difficulties getting elected president due to a plethora of votes that could be used against them. Senator Obama may well be immune to such attacks. Because he is a relative newcomer and possesses an abundance of charisma , it is difficult to box him into a corner and thus he is more able to define himself. Now, in the land of lobster and Dartmouth it appears the junior Senator from Illinois may well be crowned. A win in New Hampshire will put Obama in a situation where only he can cause his own demise. If this becomes reality Iowa will have proved to be a kingmaker and all those hot summer days spent campaigning will have born fruit during these snowy months. I guess it should not be a surprise that a son of a Kansas girl will have been anointed in the cornfields of Iowa. What is surprising is he is also the son of a Kenyan.

Barack Obama’s popularity soars - in Germany

So what does it all mean? One theme that was conveyed in Iowa on Thursday night is unbridled conservatism is dead, at least for this election. For a red state like Iowa to choose Huckabee tells you ideology wasn’t that important. Perhaps his religious roots were but not political ideology. The second thing we learned is populism is in vogue. Both Obama and Huckabee exude populism. This is great news if you are a progressive. The sinister edge in politics we have seen in recent elections is not carrying the day. Mitt Romney with his campaign tossing out millions of dollars in ads and his decision to use those ads to attack Huckabee seems to have backfired. The most amazing thing we learned is, at least in Iowa, the Democrats are not going to sit on their hands this election. Iowa, a pillar of a Republican state, saw twice as many Democrats caucus as Republicans. Both parties broke attendance records but the Democrats flocked to the caucus sites in droves. Watching C-SPAN tonight, the site that was highlighted on the Democratic side had so many people that there was confusion as to how to effectively count those for each candidate. Both Huckabee and Obama gave great victory speeches that spoke to change. I felt reassured tonight. I know it is just the first step but it is the beginning of the end of the nightmare that is the Bush Presidency.

I am not shy in telling people I have a plethora of problems with the current President. So many in fact that there isn’t enough time left on this Wednesday evening to write them all. But what I am experiencing these days is just plain strange. I am seeing not just poor leadership but a complete void of leadership. By most accounts the situation in Iraq is going much better. Military deaths are down as are Iraqi civilian deaths. Would you know this if you didn’t pay close attention to what is going on in the Middle East? I am certain the average American doesn’t have a clue to what is transpiring in our largest war since Vietnam. I’m not saying we are winning the war in Iraq but the conditions have improved considerably in the past six months and what do you hear? Crickets chirping. Silence. The leader of the free world has lost his voice. After the sacrifice of over 4000 military personnel don’t you think the President has an obligation to tout what is occurring? General David Petraeus put out a New Year’s communiqué to the troops about what is transpiring. It is worth a read. In it he outlines the progress and the challenges ahead in Iraq. As the first Americans prepare to caucus in Iowa tomorrow wouldn’t it be productive if they comprehended the current conditions of the war? I’m sure the one man who has been championing the validity of the surge strategy in Iraq, Senator John McCain, would greatly appreciate a boost from the President; especially after what George Bush did to McCain in South Carolina in 2000. For so long many Americans have desired to move past the Bush presidency and strangely enough, it seems that we are both there and not there. Up until the NIE report which announced Iran had given up its nuclear program in 2003, the Bush Administration seemed to use its quarrel with Ahmedinejad like food that fueled its raison d’etre. But the NIE report has sucked the oxygen from the room. Even when Bhutto was assassinated the President appeared briefly, made a simple comment condemning the action, and retreated back into the White House. Isn’t January the month when the President gives the State of the Union Address? I haven’t heard a lick about that either. The nation is rudderless with a full year to go until inauguration day.  If anyone is reading this in Washington DC, could you please drive by the White House and see if there are any lights on?