Burning Sage II
Sunday, February 3rd, 2008How about that amazing catch made by New York Giant’s wide receiver David Tyree? Facing 3rd down and five yards to go QB Eli Manning hurled the ball down field and Tyree jumped high in a crowd and came down, pressing the ball against his helmet. That has to be the greatest catch in Super Bowl history. Great stuff.
Now we can focus on Super Tuesday now that Super Sunday is over. On the Democratic side, Obama is surging. The question remains if he has surged enough. The conventional wisdom is Obama does well when casual voters have had time to hear his message. Have enough of them had a chance to do so before Tuesday? There are 22 states that hold Democratic primaries in two days. Hillary Clinton holds an edge in Massachusetts (despite both Senators Kerry and Kennedy endorsing Obama), New York, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. Obama is favored in Georgia, Alabama, Illinois, Kansas (at least they are good for something), Minnesota, North Dakota, Idaho and Alaska. The states that are too close to call are Utah, New Jersey, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, Connecticut, Delaware, California, and Missouri. Missouri will be the bell weather state as we head west. Missouri’s two key cities are at odds over the Democratic choice. Kansas City has Clinton up by 7% while St Louis favors Obama who is up by 16% there (according to the latest Zogby poll). California is the big sombrero on Tuesday. The race could not be closer there. New polls out have the race a virtual dead heat. Latino voters and women in the Golden State trend toward Clinton but the independents, the young and the super liberals (especially in the Bay area) buoy Obama. The race for the Democratic nomination will almost certainly not end Tuesday. Delegates are dealt proportionately with a hard to comprehend system that awards the delegates based on percentage of vote thresholds. To see how individual states proportion delegates click here. There should be a fairly even division of delegates if the polls are accurate (not a guarantee). A tight race just makes being a political wonk more exciting.
On the Republican side Romney is hoping to survive Super Tuesday. Romney has the vast majority of Conservatives on his side but that doesn’t seem to be enough. The fact that Huckabee is still in the race and is siphoning off many of the Christian Conservatives is not helping Romney in the least. This fact is driving the core Republicans crazy. Just look what it has done to our dear friend Ann Coulter.
Don’t you just love to see the Republican party in turmoil. Just watching McCain, Giuliani and Schwarzenegger standing together, three moderate Republicans, shows you what Bush has done to the party. McCain, who didn’t support Bush’s tax cuts, Giuliani, who makes Clinton seem like the poster child for marriage fidelity, and Schwarzenegger, who has been forced to be a liberal Republican in recent months have become the faces of winning in the GOP. All I can say is serves you right for voting for George W. These are your just desserts. Enjoy them. And your alternative is Mitt Romney. The guy who makes John Kerry’s waffling seem like a small stutter.
So the beat goes on and Tuesday should be one exciting night.
