Archive for February 6th, 2008

This Tsunami Left No Damage

Wednesday, February 6th, 2008

 

Super Tuesday is in the books and the landscape on the Democratic side has the look of where we were on Monday. Clinton won the big states like New York, California and Massachusetts but Obama tallied many more states. As the smoke clears we see that Obama actually gathered more delegates which is the key to winning the race. Clinton’s victories in California and Arizona are closely tied to the Hispanic vote. As the primary moves forward Obama seems to have the edge. Gone are the states with large Hispanic voters except for Texas and regions of the country that have been good for Obama are coming up. Some of these states have caucuses which Obama has cleaned up so far (Iowa and Kansas). Saturday, Louisiana has a primary and Washington state has a caucus. It will be interesting to see how the candidates fare in Louisiana. The Northwest if Idaho (and to a certain degree Northern California) are any indication appears to favor Obama. Following these states is a caucus in Maine and then the Potomac states’ Primary  on February 12. DC, Virginia and Maryland all seem ripe for the picking for Obama. Then on February 19 Hawaii (where Obama lived for a time) and Wisconsin are up. Wisconsin has a history of independent and progressive voters and we will have to see if they will go Obama’s way, like their neighbor Minnesota, or Clinton’s direction like their eastern neighbor Michigan. And then you’ll want to circle March 4 when the big delegate states of Texas and Ohio join Rhode Island and Vermont for what may be a mini-super Tuesday. Texas is southern in a many ways (that so far has helped Obama). There are more Latinos voters (18%) than Black voters (11%) in Texas which has favored Hillary. 228 delegates are up for grabs in Texas. Delegate rich Ohio (with 161 delegates), bridging East and Midwest will be a battleground state between the Democrats much like Missouri was. Expect both campaigns to funnel large sums of money into both Texas and Ohio. On April 22 if the race continues Pennsylvania with its 188 delegates looms large.

I would like to give my hats off to those in the Kansas caucus. There was a book written a few years back titled “What’s Wrong With Kansas?”. Kansas is always a red state during the general election but in the caucus I had two personal contacts say the Democratic voters swamped the vote locations. Paul Knightly said at his polling location the church that was meant to hold around 600 saw over 2000 people show up and they had to caucus outside in the wind and snow last night! Obama won the state with over 70% of the vote! If Barack gets the nomination and Kansas goes blue that would be Reagan-like in the 1984 election.

Obama has survived the Tsunami on Tuesday and the longer this goes on and the more he is able to reach out the more it favors him. People already know Hillary and have made up their mind about her but not so much Obama. As the snow begins to thaw and the temperatures rise, expect the Democratic race for selection to heat up as well.

 

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If it appears I favor Obama in my blog lately, I am guilty. With McCain winning on the GOP side, there is now no doubt if you want to guarantee a Democratic victory in ‘08 Obama will deliver. Clinton will be the one entity that will galvanize the moderate right and conservatives together and back McCain. Barack Obama is the transformative figure that will bring all Democrats, most moderate independents and some fence sitting Republicans together. I believe he will not only win in ‘08 he will dominate. Look at the states he is carrying. Look at the numbers of Democrats that are showing up to vote this time around. Hillary can win in ‘08 but her victory will be bitter and nationally divisive. Obama’s will be spirited and unifying. Of that, I have no doubt.

 

Update 2:47 PM CST: I found this piece from the Washington Times via Matt Drudge. It mirrors what I wrote above.