Back in 1898 we fought a small war with Spain. It was during a time when America was interested in expanding its prestige by spreading the notion of  Manifest Destiny to those across the ocean. Spain, whose empire and military might was a shell of its former self, lost its Caribbean and Pacific holdings to the upstart Americans. Cuba, the Philippines, Guam and Puerto Rico came under the sway of the United States. Cuba and the Philippines have since charted their own course but Guam and Puerto Rico remain entities within the US. Both Puerto Rico and Guam are unincorporated US territories and its people are statutory US citizens. Puerto Rico, on the other hand, is a Commonwealth of the US. The chief of state of Puerto Rico is the US President. The executive that runs internal affairs in PR is the Governor, currently Aníbal Acevedo Vilá. Though not given full representation as a state by the US, Puerto Rico does have what’s called a Resident Commissioner in Congress.  Puerto Rico possesses a similar situation as DC. Both do not take part in the general election for President of the US. But both do take part in the nomination process in selecting a candidate for the Democratic and Republican party.

Here is where things could get interesting. If things go down to the wire in selecting a Democratic nominee, Puerto Rico sits as the last caucus in the primary process. Unlike all the other Democratic caucuses and primaries Puerto Rico is a winner take all caucus. They have 63 delegates in the process and because they are winner take all these delegates carry more weight than California’s delegates which were divided among Clinton and Obama. How interesting would it be if that little gem in the Caribbean would wind up selecting the Democratic nominee for President of the US? There is a small chance that it would come to this but it is a chance none the less. In the mean time it probably would be in the best interest of the candidates to brush up on their Spanish. Si Se Pueda!

Interesting facts about Puerto Rico:

There are more people of Puerto Rican heritage living in the US than in Puerto Rico.

Recent DNA testing has revealed the average Puerto Rican has 61% Amerindian, 26% African and 12% Caucasian ancestry from their female chromosome. Conversely, their Y chromosome which comes from the male line shows 70% of all Puerto Ricans have inherited their Y chromosome from Europeans, 20% from an African ancestor and 10% from an Amerindian.

Super Tuesday is in the books and the landscape on the Democratic side has the look of where we were on Monday. Clinton won the big states like New York, California and Massachusetts but Obama tallied many more states. As the smoke clears we see that Obama actually gathered more delegates which is the key to winning the race. Clinton’s victories in California and Arizona are closely tied to the Hispanic vote. As the primary moves forward Obama seems to have the edge. Gone are the states with large Hispanic voters except for Texas and regions of the country that have been good for Obama are coming up. Some of these states have caucuses which Obama has cleaned up so far (Iowa and Kansas). Saturday, Louisiana has a primary and Washington state has a caucus. It will be interesting to see how the candidates fare in Louisiana. The Northwest if Idaho (and to a certain degree Northern California) are any indication appears to favor Obama. Following these states is a caucus in Maine and then the Potomac states’ Primary  on February 12. DC, Virginia and Maryland all seem ripe for the picking for Obama. Then on February 19 Hawaii (where Obama lived for a time) and Wisconsin are up. Wisconsin has a history of independent and progressive voters and we will have to see if they will go Obama’s way, like their neighbor Minnesota, or Clinton’s direction like their eastern neighbor Michigan. And then you’ll want to circle March 4 when the big delegate states of Texas and Ohio join Rhode Island and Vermont for what may be a mini-super Tuesday. Texas is southern in a many ways (that so far has helped Obama). There are more Latinos voters (18%) than Black voters (11%) in Texas which has favored Hillary. 228 delegates are up for grabs in Texas. Delegate rich Ohio (with 161 delegates), bridging East and Midwest will be a battleground state between the Democrats much like Missouri was. Expect both campaigns to funnel large sums of money into both Texas and Ohio. On April 22 if the race continues Pennsylvania with its 188 delegates looms large.

I would like to give my hats off to those in the Kansas caucus. There was a book written a few years back titled “What’s Wrong With Kansas?”. Kansas is always a red state during the general election but in the caucus I had two personal contacts say the Democratic voters swamped the vote locations. Paul Knightly said at his polling location the church that was meant to hold around 600 saw over 2000 people show up and they had to caucus outside in the wind and snow last night! Obama won the state with over 70% of the vote! If Barack gets the nomination and Kansas goes blue that would be Reagan-like in the 1984 election.

Obama has survived the Tsunami on Tuesday and the longer this goes on and the more he is able to reach out the more it favors him. People already know Hillary and have made up their mind about her but not so much Obama. As the snow begins to thaw and the temperatures rise, expect the Democratic race for selection to heat up as well.

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If it appears I favor Obama in my blog lately, I am guilty. With McCain winning on the GOP side, there is now no doubt if you want to guarantee a Democratic victory in ‘08 Obama will deliver. Clinton will be the one entity that will galvanize the moderate right and conservatives together and back McCain. Barack Obama is the transformative figure that will bring all Democrats, most moderate independents and some fence sitting Republicans together. I believe he will not only win in ‘08 he will dominate. Look at the states he is carrying. Look at the numbers of Democrats that are showing up to vote this time around. Hillary can win in ‘08 but her victory will be bitter and nationally divisive. Obama’s will be spirited and unifying. Of that, I have no doubt.

Update 2:47 PM CST: I found this piece from the Washington Times via Matt Drudge. It mirrors what I wrote above.

The Anti-Bush

Not that I really give a rat’s hiney about what Rush Limbaugh says or thinks but there is so much flip flopping and moving away from principles going on in the GOP I thought the champion of Conservative radio should get into the act as well. Bob Dole has reprimanded the host for attacking McCain on the eve of the Arizona Senator seizing the reins of the Republican party. Limbaugh has been ruthless in his dressing down of McCain in recent months due to his lack of Conservative credentials and the establishment is beginning to put pressure on all those in right wing talk radio to cease and desist. Let’s listen together as the mouthpiece of the right first simmers his attacks of McCain, then shifts gears as the Democratic nominee is finally chosen (maybe not until late summer) and then begins to hail McCain’s strengths. Let us liberals cram the flip flopping issue in the faces of these hypocrites just like they did in ‘04.

How about that amazing catch made by New York Giant’s wide receiver David Tyree? Facing 3rd down and five yards to go QB Eli Manning hurled the ball down field and Tyree jumped high in a crowd and came down, pressing the ball against his helmet. That has to be the greatest catch in Super Bowl history. Great stuff.

Now we can focus on Super Tuesday now that Super Sunday is over. On the Democratic side, Obama is surging. The question remains if he has surged enough. The conventional wisdom is Obama does well when casual voters have had time to hear his message. Have enough of them had a chance to do so before Tuesday? There are 22 states that hold Democratic primaries in two days. Hillary Clinton holds an edge in Massachusetts (despite both Senators Kerry and Kennedy endorsing Obama), New York, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. Obama is favored in Georgia, Alabama, Illinois, Kansas (at least they are good for something), Minnesota, North Dakota, Idaho and Alaska. The states that are too close to call are Utah, New Jersey, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, Connecticut, Delaware, California, and Missouri. Missouri will be the bell weather state as we head west. Missouri’s two key cities are at odds over the Democratic choice. Kansas City has Clinton up by 7% while St Louis favors Obama who is up by 16% there (according to the latest Zogby poll). California is the big sombrero on Tuesday. The race could not be closer there. New polls out have the race a virtual dead heat. Latino voters and women in the Golden State trend toward Clinton but the independents, the young and the super liberals (especially in the Bay area) buoy Obama. The race for the Democratic nomination will almost certainly not end Tuesday. Delegates are dealt proportionately with a hard to comprehend system that awards the delegates based on percentage of vote thresholds. To see how individual states proportion delegates click here. There should be a fairly even division of delegates if the polls are accurate (not a guarantee). A tight race just makes being a political wonk more exciting.

On the Republican side Romney is hoping to survive Super Tuesday. Romney has the vast majority of Conservatives on his side but that doesn’t seem to be enough. The fact that Huckabee is still in the race and is siphoning off many of the Christian Conservatives is not helping Romney in the least. This fact is driving the core Republicans crazy. Just look what it has done to our dear friend Ann Coulter.

Don’t you just love to see the Republican party in turmoil. Just watching McCain, Giuliani and Schwarzenegger standing together, three moderate Republicans, shows you what Bush has done to the party. McCain, who didn’t support Bush’s tax cuts, Giuliani, who makes Clinton seem like the poster child for marriage fidelity, and Schwarzenegger, who has been forced to be a liberal Republican in recent months have become the faces of winning in the GOP. All I can say is serves you right for voting for George W. These are your just desserts. Enjoy them. And your alternative is Mitt Romney. The guy who makes John Kerry’s waffling seem like a small stutter.

So the beat goes on and Tuesday should be one exciting night.

With just a day to go to Super Bowl Sunday I would like you to take a moment to calm down some and get in the groove like the Schwam. Football is a contact sport with lots of movement. Being a football host and analyst is another animal all together. This is one of my rare moments away from the important issues.