Jaded Sage:

The above was a quote by retired General Barry McCaffrey when asked about the future of Iraq. In the Fall I had the honor to attend a lecture in Kansas City initiated by the War College in Fort Leavenworth. The headliner for the event was General McCaffrey and it is was extremely informative. This week the General along with three other experts gave their assessments of the impact of the surge in Iraq and their idea where Iraq is heading in the immediate future. Their witness testimony was given before the Senate and provided the best insight into the war. Their bias-free view was refreshing. If you have three hours to kill I encourage you as a voting American to listen to their testimony. I believe everyone has this obligation. It is beyond the breadth of the bullet point driven media and free of political propaganda. To listen in it’s entirety click on the link at the end of the entry.

Gen. McCaffrey spoke first and gave his assessment. He led by saying the surge changed the nature of the struggle in Iraq. McCaffrey believes (and I strongly agree) the current commander in the Iraq theater (General David Patraeus) is the best military leader the US has had in 40 years. The other positive is the makeup of the Iraqi police is changing from thugs who had sectarian affiliations to a more professional force. McCaffrey, however, has much more to criticize than he does to praise. The Maliki government is completely dysfunctional and does not hold authority over any sector within Iraq, and that includes Baghdad. In other words the Maliki government is in fact totally useless. Corruption is breathtaking within the government and has added to the ineffectiveness. There is no doubt that a lot of the money being wasted is American tax dollars. In the meantime Iran is arming, funding and training the various Shia militias including the Mahdi Army and the Badr Brigades, et al. With our current troop strength, the US military can easily put down a Shia uprising but as we withdrawal, and we will withdrawal (as McCaffrey points out) not because of political reasons but because our military is overextended to the limit.

The US officers in the field are the defacto government in Iraq. Since the central government is absent in providing services, it is these officers that go around Iraq with hand fulls of dollars getting things done at the local level. McCaffrey stresses the US military is starting to unravel. The fourteen month rotations and the fact that some units are on their third and fourth tour is starting to grind them down. The weapon systems, including both air and sea assets, are deteriorating and in some cases becoming obsolete. Contractors in Iraq, both US and foreign have begun to play the roles traditionally done by regular service members in the past. Without these contractors the war would grind to a halt.

The situation that erupted in Basra over the past week underscores the obstacle for Iraq. Not only do they have to overcome a Sunni-Shia rift that has not even begun to be dealt with, never mind beginning to be healed but there is severe tensions within the Shia family which played out in south Iraq. With no effective government the only hope for Iraq is for the elections that will occur in the Fall to change the dynamic of government just like the surge did for the military component. But the US is almost done being the baby sitter. Soon Iraq will have to stand or fall on their own merits and this may depend almost as much on their neighbors as it does from within.

Senate Foreign Relations Cmte. Hearing on the U.S. Troop Buildup