Jaded Sage:

As the Democratic race nears its end and the economy takes its rightful place on the front burner of the 2008 Presidential campaign the sights and sounds of Iraq have largely faded from public view. It is a shame because we are seeing dramatic events unfolding there. Violence in that war torn land is way down and Patraeus’ counterintelligence (COIN) strategy which began with the surge in late 2007 is bearing fruit. Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) exists only in small pockets and even those elements are finding life extremely difficult these days. For the most part AQI has overplayed their hand by murdering Iraqis in an effort to use fear to foment their grip on the nation. They are seen as enemies of the state by both Sunnis and Shias within Iraq.

The huge debacle perpetrated by L. Paul Bremmer at the onset of the occupation, the disbanding of the Iraq military, has largely been reversed and we are seeing more and more Iraqi forces (IA) take the lead in securing areas of Iraq once the domain of either AQI (who have been forced out) or sectarian militias (who have been forced to either lay down their arms or melt away). The most dramatic example of the IA playing a singular role is in Basra, a city near both the Iranian border and along the Persian Gulf. Basra was "seized" by IA troops two months ago and has since secured the city.  At the onset of the war Basra had been "occupied" by British forces but they recently left Iraq. Even when the British troops resided in the city, their hands off approach allowed for the city to devolve into power struggles between a multitude of Shiite militias, all vying to see who could be the most Islamic. As a result the region turned into a Taliban style, culturally restrictive enclave. All of this turmoil occurred in Iraqis most oil rich sector.

The progress in Basra comes on the heals of significant improvements first in Sunni dominated Al-Anbar Province and then in Baghdad. Sadr City, a lower class Shia neighborhood has been cleared of active militias by both US forces and IA. 

The best news of all is that Iraqi President Nouri al-Maliki has vast public support. The true test of this will occur in 2009 as Iraq is set to hold general elections next year.

There is no doubt Iraq has a long way to go, especially in terms of repairing its infrastructure but the signs are promising. As I have said all along, failure in Iraq would be horrible for the Iraqis and send an abysmal message to those in the region. Patreaus continues to prove his mettle. If the casualty rates continue to decline, the Iraq War will indeed no longer be a significant campaign issue. For all Americans and Iraqis, this could be the best possible result.