Jaded Sage:

As we know Barack Obama is attracting unprecedented numbers of Black Americans to the polls during the primaries. The notion of a Black President enfranchises these voters in ways never seen before. Barack Obama, the junior Senator from Illinois, seems to have an affect on Black voters like that other Illinois politician, Abe Lincoln had in the 19th century. Obama is the zeta to Lincoln’s alpha; the pinnacle of nearly 150 years of the struggle to be free but never quite equal might end with the 2008 election. If Obama does win the Democratic Primary, what impact will he have beyond the Presidential race? If large number of Black voters swamp the polls on November 2, what will be the secondary effect? If Blacks go to the polls for Obama it can only help incumbents like Mary Landrieu of Louisiana. Her seat in the Senate is the one most in jeopardy to be lost by the Democrats. Landrieu, however, is playing it close to the vest. She has not endorsed either candidate thus far. You would think that in her most private moments she cheers on Obama like a rabid NASCAR fan. Another key seat up for grabs is Trent Lott’s old slot in Mississippi. Ronnie Musgrove (D) will be running against Roger Wicker (R). Already said to be a close race, a huge African-American turnout could turn the tide in a very Red State. The most interesting race that involves the “Obama Factor” will be in Alabama. Jeff Sessions, a two term Senator, would normally be a shoe-in but recent events swirling around the incarceration of former Alabama Governor Don Siegelman around spurious information and involving Karl Rove aired recently on CBS’ 60 Minutes. If you didn’t catch the episode watch it here. Jeff Sessions pressured CBS to not air the program. Why would he do this if he has nothing to hide? Sessions will be running against a Black female candidate named Vivian Figures. What will Obama’s impact be on this race if he is on the Presidential ballot in November? Will Red States turn black in 2008 under the weight of interested African American voters? If so, the party will owe a debt of gratitude to them along with Barack Obama for making it possible. Never in the history of this country have African Americans been in a position to have this much power…and this much equality.  It has been a long time in coming.

Democrats Dream of a Filibuster Proof Senate

Bear Hug

Russia will soon have a new president. Dmitry Medvedev was hand chosen by Vladimir Putin to succeed him. In state elections today Medvedev will win in a landslide. Putin is popular in Russia these days largely due to the fact that the economy in the previously communist state is improving; some say booming. But don’t conclude Medvedev won fair and square. There were several options on the ballot but Putin’s control of the government meant access to information on these other candidates was severely limited in most cases and outright restricted in others. The one man most known in the west, Gary Kasparov the chess champion, was denied inclusion on the ballot and is one of the key opposition leaders who has called the election a “farce”. Assemblies have often been broken up by law enforcement officials within Russia and the media is run by the state and thus is pro-Putin. To watch a documentary highlighting these issues click here. Putin will be named Prime Minister and retain his authority from behind the scenes. Russia continues to struggle with letting go of authoritative government some 16 years after the passing of the Soviet Union.

Tunnel Politics

Tuesday is being called by some Super Tuesday light. With Ohio and Texas on the primary schedule both Hillary and Barack are campaigning this weekend with different goals. Senator Clinton is campaigning to hang on to any hopes of continuing the race. Many say she has to win both to remain viable, others say she must win by double digits to appear credible. The latter is highly unlikely. Senator Obama is campaigning to end the primary. A win by him in either Texas or Ohio will send his opponent “to the showers”. If he manages to win both it will bring down the curtains for sure. The Obama campaign has learned a valuable lesson from the Kerry campaign of four years ago. Whenever there is an attack from either Clinton or McCain, they waste no time in returning fire; sometimes in a matter of hours. They understand the power of the “swiftboat” and it appears, like in the famous line in Jaws, that his opponent are going to need a bigger boat.

Cold War Hangover

Recently President Bush singled out Obama’s naivete in foreign affairs by blasting his suggestion that as US president, the Illinois Senator would meet with the newly appointed leader of Cuba, Raul Castro. Bush claimed that such a meeting would give credence to the authoritarian regime. I am so sick of this administration’s callous disregard for precedents and a strange neglect of history. When Republican President Richard Nixon visited China, a move seen as one of his few achievements, China was one of the most authoritarian nations on the planet. Look at Chinese-American relations now. Granted the economic policy highly favors China and that needs to change but China has moved beyond their insular foreign policy and has begun a new movement of openness that will not be reversed. After Senators Kerry and McCain pressed the President to normalize relations with Vietnam in 1995, trade restrictions were lifted and in 2000 President Clinton became the first US President to visit the nation since the war ended. (President Nixon actually visited the Vietnam while still at war in 1969). The communist state has followed China’s lead and they have allowed free trade to flourish in this once closed country. And now there is debate over Cuba. Is there anyone who does not doubt the same result we have seen in the communist nations of China and Vietnam will also ensue in Cuba? It is time to return Cuba to the paradise it was in the 1940s. Resuming ties with the island nation will bring their society closer to ours, not vice versa.

Ralph Nader is running again and it seems many of the Dems are nervous. They remember all too well the impact he had on the 2000 election. The press loves the story as well. Even conservatives embrace the idea of Nader torpedoing the liberals once again. But 2008 is much different than 2000 or even 2004 for that matter. The past two presidential elections had two weak candidates squaring off. Bush twice and Gore and Kerry subsequently did not arouse passion on either side. Be honest. Whomever you voted for you merely did so because in your mind your choice was better than the other side. You did so out of either party preference or ideology, but you did not vote for them out of passion. 2008 is different. One of my good friends told me recently he hoped Obama wins the Democratic nomination because for the first time in his voting life he would be voting out of desire and not just duty. Obama’s knowledge of history is keen. Read his latest book to comprehend the breadth of knowledge he possesses about the political history of this nation. When the topic of Ralph Nader’s entrance into the race arose, Obama was as savy and direct as an arrow. Nader contended in 2000 there was no difference between the Democratic and Republican parties. Obama said today, “He (Nader) thought that there was no difference between Al Gore and George Bush and, eight years later, I think people realize that Ralph did not know what he was talking about.” In previous elections Democrats treated Nader with kid gloves so as not to harm the liberal base. Obama, speaking from strength, is not playing that game. Nader, in my opinion, will not play even a small role in the 2008 election. Some have criticized Barack Obama for not ever running a competitive election against a Republican opponent but if today’s perfectly spoken comments about Nader are any indication, Obama is already speaking like a winner.

So how do all you Democrats feel about Barack Obama as your candidate? There is little chance for a Clinton recovery at this point. The indicators in Wisconsin, which should have been prime real estate for the Hillary campaign, were all in favor of Obama. Even women voted for him at a 50% clip. Are there any of you that are a little weary of a shopper’s hangover? Is there a little doubt in any of your heads? Don’t get me wrong. Obama seems extremely bright and he is an exceptional orator (that goes without saying). He is one of the most liberal Senators in Congress, that is good, but how will he lead? We have no track record in that category. We know what we will get with Hillary and we really didn’t want to go down the road to division and gridlock, which was the path of that ticket. We pushed aside Edwards and that was unfortunate and we didn’t even give Biden a shot. That was the biggest shame. As the Democratic nominees were whittled down to two, I have no doubt that Obama was the correct choice. Now it will be Obama versus McCain and come on, there really is no choice between those two. As McCain gives speeches as if he is addressing a group of thirteen year olds and uses the phrase “my friends” half a billion times, his exit can’t come fast enough, never mind having to endure that for four years. So how does President Obama sound? You remember looking through those old encyclopedias or history text books and they have all those pictures of the Presidents and when they served? Imagine as you scan the portraits of what he Native peoples called the “Great White Fathers”. Adams…..Monroe……Buchanan…..Garfield….Teddy Roosevelt….Truman…..Nixon….and then bam…..Obama!

Obama is change like this country has never had before. There has to be more people besides me that has a glimmer of uncertainty about the choice. It is not based on race or age but instead on how effective he can be. It is not the same feeling I got as Bush was given the White House in 2000. I knew that would be a disaster. I just didn’t think people would be stupid enough to vote for him twice.  If Obama’s ability matches his charisma, the sky is the limit. Obama has more potential in his first syllable than Bush has in eight years of his presidency. I’m on board, I’m invested. And as Obama would say himself, I’m hopeful.

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Jeff Flake (R) Representative has been running an anti-pork campaign in the House. Because he criticizes both Democrats and Republicans he is being punished by his party for not following the party line. With the national debt over $9 trillion we need more Representatives like Flake. His situation is detailed in a current article in the Christian Science Monitor:

Capitol Hill ‘pork’ reformer faces uphill battle

Barack Obama has found much success this weekend. After winning Nebraska, Washington, Louisiana, Virgin Islands on Saturday and Maine today the senator from Illinois heads into Tuesday’s Chesapeake Primary with momentum. He is expected to do well in Virginia, Maryland and DC as well. The Clinton campaign is in crisis mode. Her camp manager has stepped down after not wrapping up the nomination on Super Tuesday. It appears the strategy was to have a hold of the Democratic race after last Tuesday’s big primaries. Now the Clinton strategy must be rearranged at a time when the news for them is not good. This weekends primaries and caucuses along with this coming Tuesday’s have all favored Obama. The talk now is the Clinton campaign is eyeing the big state primaries in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania where her 50/50 supporters are more numerous. The 50/50 are those over 50 years old and those who make under $50,000 a year. Along with female voters, these are the core of Hillary’s support. I wonder if waiting for the big states to roll around might be a strategy of “Giuliani light”, referring to the former Mayor’s plan to not compete in the early primary states and prepare for the later primaries in Florida and then Super Tuesday. As other’s won these early primaries, Giuliani was simply forgotten. As Obama rolls through smaller states throughout the nation this weekend and the following days and weeks, will voters not see Hillary as viable? This is the burning question.

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On the Republican side the returns this weekend show the complete dissatisfaction of core conservatives with their candidate. With Romney dropping out of the race so that “we won’t surrender to terror”, Republicans in Kansas and Louisiana chose Huckabee over the candidate that is certain, short of a massive coronary, to win the nomination. Perhaps that is the “miracle” in which Huckabee is referring. In Washington McCain received 26%, Huckabee 24% and Ron Paul (yes, that kooky son-of-a-bitch) received 21% (most of those must have come from the eastern part of the state, next to Idaho). So McCain is competing with an ex-minister who wants to amend the Constitution to outlaw both gay marriage and abortion and also a crazy fringe Representative from Texas. There was a time when Republicans would get behind the anointed candidate. Bush’s disastrous presidency along with McCain’s go-it-alone Congressional history have turned the Vietnam hero into a pariah in his own party.

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Iraq, on the ground, is going well. The momentum the surge has instilled is really breathtaking. But the Iraqi government is as worthless as any government in the region. There is no conciliation going on. In fact as the US is creating peaceful sectors in the Sunni region of Al-Anbar, the Iraqi government won’t fill the economic void because the Shia dominated politicians don’t want to legitimize the Sunni militias that are holding the line.

Read more details from an excellent article written by an ex-marine, Bing West.

In the meantime the Kurds are more and more acting like an autonomous country. Most Kurds don’t even refer to themselves as Iraqi any longer. Their policies have been so independent minded lately that many believe they have overplayed their hand. The Kurds have begun to make their own oil deals and the Shia and the Sunni Iraqis have protested this move, perhaps the only time when the two contentious factions have seen an issue eye to eye.

Back in 1898 we fought a small war with Spain. It was during a time when America was interested in expanding its prestige by spreading the notion of  Manifest Destiny to those across the ocean. Spain, whose empire and military might was a shell of its former self, lost its Caribbean and Pacific holdings to the upstart Americans. Cuba, the Philippines, Guam and Puerto Rico came under the sway of the United States. Cuba and the Philippines have since charted their own course but Guam and Puerto Rico remain entities within the US. Both Puerto Rico and Guam are unincorporated US territories and its people are statutory US citizens. Puerto Rico, on the other hand, is a Commonwealth of the US. The chief of state of Puerto Rico is the US President. The executive that runs internal affairs in PR is the Governor, currently Aníbal Acevedo Vilá. Though not given full representation as a state by the US, Puerto Rico does have what’s called a Resident Commissioner in Congress.  Puerto Rico possesses a similar situation as DC. Both do not take part in the general election for President of the US. But both do take part in the nomination process in selecting a candidate for the Democratic and Republican party.

Here is where things could get interesting. If things go down to the wire in selecting a Democratic nominee, Puerto Rico sits as the last caucus in the primary process. Unlike all the other Democratic caucuses and primaries Puerto Rico is a winner take all caucus. They have 63 delegates in the process and because they are winner take all these delegates carry more weight than California’s delegates which were divided among Clinton and Obama. How interesting would it be if that little gem in the Caribbean would wind up selecting the Democratic nominee for President of the US? There is a small chance that it would come to this but it is a chance none the less. In the mean time it probably would be in the best interest of the candidates to brush up on their Spanish. Si Se Pueda!

Interesting facts about Puerto Rico:

There are more people of Puerto Rican heritage living in the US than in Puerto Rico.

Recent DNA testing has revealed the average Puerto Rican has 61% Amerindian, 26% African and 12% Caucasian ancestry from their female chromosome. Conversely, their Y chromosome which comes from the male line shows 70% of all Puerto Ricans have inherited their Y chromosome from Europeans, 20% from an African ancestor and 10% from an Amerindian.

Super Tuesday is in the books and the landscape on the Democratic side has the look of where we were on Monday. Clinton won the big states like New York, California and Massachusetts but Obama tallied many more states. As the smoke clears we see that Obama actually gathered more delegates which is the key to winning the race. Clinton’s victories in California and Arizona are closely tied to the Hispanic vote. As the primary moves forward Obama seems to have the edge. Gone are the states with large Hispanic voters except for Texas and regions of the country that have been good for Obama are coming up. Some of these states have caucuses which Obama has cleaned up so far (Iowa and Kansas). Saturday, Louisiana has a primary and Washington state has a caucus. It will be interesting to see how the candidates fare in Louisiana. The Northwest if Idaho (and to a certain degree Northern California) are any indication appears to favor Obama. Following these states is a caucus in Maine and then the Potomac states’ Primary  on February 12. DC, Virginia and Maryland all seem ripe for the picking for Obama. Then on February 19 Hawaii (where Obama lived for a time) and Wisconsin are up. Wisconsin has a history of independent and progressive voters and we will have to see if they will go Obama’s way, like their neighbor Minnesota, or Clinton’s direction like their eastern neighbor Michigan. And then you’ll want to circle March 4 when the big delegate states of Texas and Ohio join Rhode Island and Vermont for what may be a mini-super Tuesday. Texas is southern in a many ways (that so far has helped Obama). There are more Latinos voters (18%) than Black voters (11%) in Texas which has favored Hillary. 228 delegates are up for grabs in Texas. Delegate rich Ohio (with 161 delegates), bridging East and Midwest will be a battleground state between the Democrats much like Missouri was. Expect both campaigns to funnel large sums of money into both Texas and Ohio. On April 22 if the race continues Pennsylvania with its 188 delegates looms large.

I would like to give my hats off to those in the Kansas caucus. There was a book written a few years back titled “What’s Wrong With Kansas?”. Kansas is always a red state during the general election but in the caucus I had two personal contacts say the Democratic voters swamped the vote locations. Paul Knightly said at his polling location the church that was meant to hold around 600 saw over 2000 people show up and they had to caucus outside in the wind and snow last night! Obama won the state with over 70% of the vote! If Barack gets the nomination and Kansas goes blue that would be Reagan-like in the 1984 election.

Obama has survived the Tsunami on Tuesday and the longer this goes on and the more he is able to reach out the more it favors him. People already know Hillary and have made up their mind about her but not so much Obama. As the snow begins to thaw and the temperatures rise, expect the Democratic race for selection to heat up as well.

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If it appears I favor Obama in my blog lately, I am guilty. With McCain winning on the GOP side, there is now no doubt if you want to guarantee a Democratic victory in ‘08 Obama will deliver. Clinton will be the one entity that will galvanize the moderate right and conservatives together and back McCain. Barack Obama is the transformative figure that will bring all Democrats, most moderate independents and some fence sitting Republicans together. I believe he will not only win in ‘08 he will dominate. Look at the states he is carrying. Look at the numbers of Democrats that are showing up to vote this time around. Hillary can win in ‘08 but her victory will be bitter and nationally divisive. Obama’s will be spirited and unifying. Of that, I have no doubt.

Update 2:47 PM CST: I found this piece from the Washington Times via Matt Drudge. It mirrors what I wrote above.

The Anti-Bush

How about that amazing catch made by New York Giant’s wide receiver David Tyree? Facing 3rd down and five yards to go QB Eli Manning hurled the ball down field and Tyree jumped high in a crowd and came down, pressing the ball against his helmet. That has to be the greatest catch in Super Bowl history. Great stuff.

Now we can focus on Super Tuesday now that Super Sunday is over. On the Democratic side, Obama is surging. The question remains if he has surged enough. The conventional wisdom is Obama does well when casual voters have had time to hear his message. Have enough of them had a chance to do so before Tuesday? There are 22 states that hold Democratic primaries in two days. Hillary Clinton holds an edge in Massachusetts (despite both Senators Kerry and Kennedy endorsing Obama), New York, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. Obama is favored in Georgia, Alabama, Illinois, Kansas (at least they are good for something), Minnesota, North Dakota, Idaho and Alaska. The states that are too close to call are Utah, New Jersey, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, Connecticut, Delaware, California, and Missouri. Missouri will be the bell weather state as we head west. Missouri’s two key cities are at odds over the Democratic choice. Kansas City has Clinton up by 7% while St Louis favors Obama who is up by 16% there (according to the latest Zogby poll). California is the big sombrero on Tuesday. The race could not be closer there. New polls out have the race a virtual dead heat. Latino voters and women in the Golden State trend toward Clinton but the independents, the young and the super liberals (especially in the Bay area) buoy Obama. The race for the Democratic nomination will almost certainly not end Tuesday. Delegates are dealt proportionately with a hard to comprehend system that awards the delegates based on percentage of vote thresholds. To see how individual states proportion delegates click here. There should be a fairly even division of delegates if the polls are accurate (not a guarantee). A tight race just makes being a political wonk more exciting.

On the Republican side Romney is hoping to survive Super Tuesday. Romney has the vast majority of Conservatives on his side but that doesn’t seem to be enough. The fact that Huckabee is still in the race and is siphoning off many of the Christian Conservatives is not helping Romney in the least. This fact is driving the core Republicans crazy. Just look what it has done to our dear friend Ann Coulter.

Don’t you just love to see the Republican party in turmoil. Just watching McCain, Giuliani and Schwarzenegger standing together, three moderate Republicans, shows you what Bush has done to the party. McCain, who didn’t support Bush’s tax cuts, Giuliani, who makes Clinton seem like the poster child for marriage fidelity, and Schwarzenegger, who has been forced to be a liberal Republican in recent months have become the faces of winning in the GOP. All I can say is serves you right for voting for George W. These are your just desserts. Enjoy them. And your alternative is Mitt Romney. The guy who makes John Kerry’s waffling seem like a small stutter.

So the beat goes on and Tuesday should be one exciting night.

Many Republicans claim that the current election season reveals the Reagan Coalition has collapsed. The bitter and extended infighting has failed to galvanize a candidate and there seems to be no end in sight. All those running on the GOP side like to evoke the name of their idol but conservatives throughout this great land can’t quite find the “Great Communicator” in any of their candidates. Each tries to grab a hold of piece of Reagan philosophy but can’t quite retain the essence. Republicans voters are at a loss. Their candidates this season are shifty; moving in out of focus with each state primary. Most candidates evoke the words “change” but they exude status quo.

The Democrats have issues as well. Barack Obama is an amazing orator. He is able to deliver words that compel people to watch in amazement or even to cry. But the one term Senator is an empty vessel. People fill it up with their hopes and ambitions. Many people hope the intelligence exhibited by the young politician will propel him to greatness. Like many campaigns, voters are hoping that the new candidate will correct the flaws of the previous president. In 2000 America was searching for a President that was moral and would return wholesomeness to the White House. George Bush, who obviously loved his wife and was the son of George H.W. Bush, seemed to fit that mold. Never mind about the other qualities. Barack Obama is able to rectify the most significant shortcoming of President Bush, eloquence. When a candidate is eloquent it also magnifies their intelligence in the eyes of the listener. The appearance that Bush lacks intelligence is also world renown, literally. Senator Obama appears to have that base covered as well. However, when Bill Clinton said a vote for Obama was a “roll of the dice” there is some truth in that statement. We really don’t know what we will get with him because he is such an unknown.

Senator Clinton is a known quantity. Therein lies her greatest weakness. Like the current occupier of the Oval Office, she is a divider not a uniter. People associate her with her husband. The electorates’ mind is made up when it comes to Hillary. Her presidency will continue to divide the nation. Most of her opponents have her pegged as a liberal but she is less liberal than her two main rivals in the Democratic Party. She refuses to say her vote to authorize the war in Iraq was a mistake and that point alone alienates her with the more left leaning faction of her party. She is also a solid friend of the military. In fact she has received the most donations from key military industrial companies than any candidate from either party. Top military personnel who have met with her for any length of time have their skepticism swept away by her attentiveness to their requests.

The race on both sides has become a dog fight and the excitement level is unlike anything we have seen in our lifetimes since 1968. Ok, so I’m old. With Michigan for the GOP tomorrow and South Carolina and Nevada coming in rapid succession I can only think of the famous poker saying, shuffle up and deal!

*WWRD in the title means “What Would Reagan Do?”