Jaded Sage:

Acting almost as a counterweight to the peace and harmony of the 2008 Summer Olympics, events in the world seem to be spinning in directions even the CIA must find challenging.

The Russian invasion of their former republic of Georgia this week caused many old enough to recall the Prague Summer of 1968 when Warsaw Pact forces crushed the attempt by Czechoslovakia to liberalize in what was known as the Prague Spring. But the Russians learned much from their WW II foe, Nazi Germany. In almost a rehash of the events that led to the German seizure of Czechoslovakia in 1938, Putin (though no longer President but surely the conductor of recent events) appears to have incited the Russian militias in the Georgian province of South Ossetia to rebel, forcing Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvilli to react. Machiavelli is alive and well in the new Russia. The Russian occupation of Georgian territory was done under the ruse of Georgian oppression of its Russian minorities.

Vladimir Putin has expressed the belief that relinquishing the non-Russian republics was a huge mistake following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Some experts have indicated Russia will continue to use the notion of oppressed Russian minorities throughout the former Russian republics to re-exert Russian dominance along her borders. Though no one believes Putin is a Hitler, he sure is reading from the Fuhrer’s playbook.

Russia, however, may have overplayed its hand. Her other neighbors are now worried they may get the same treatment. In 2004 Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko was poisoned and nearly died. Many believe Yushchenko’s pro-western stance brought about the attack. The Kremlin backed Yushchenko’s advisary. Ukraine has reason to fear the Bear on their border.

Poland has begun to act. They are now asking the US to install an anti-missile defense on their territory; a move surely to infuriate Moscow. These fledgling democracies are turning to the West for assistance in the wake of Russia’s aggressive posture. The dynamics of this new tension are just now beginning to play out.

Another sequence of events whose outcome is less than clear is taking place in Pakistan. General Pervez Musharraf, the long time president and US “ally” will be stepping down within the next couple days. Facing impeachment and losing support among his inner circle, Musharraf is brokering a deal that would allow him to either live in Pakistan with immunity  from prosecution or to live in exile. This is occurring as rival groups are jockeying to fill the void that will be left by Musharraf’s departure. As the US stands on the sidelines waiting for the fallout, there is uncertainty of what America’s relationship with the new leadership will be. At a time of shifting resources from Iraq to Afghanistan, the outcome of the political machinations that is gripping Pakistan will have significant implications in the continuing war against extremism in the region.

With a big foot in the Arab world and another in South Asia the United States is now forced to keep an eye further north in the Caucasus. The Russians have decided to play their hand now, making an already complicated American foreign policy even more so.

Every winter we hear about little old ladies who can’t afford their energy bill and live in small cold apartments. Well, it appears the Ukraine is playing that role these days. Russia’s energy company Gazprom has reduced the flow of natural gas to the Ukraine by 25% because of a delinquent bill. The former Soviet Republic owes Russia $600 million. The Ukraine, by far the largest importer of Russia’s natural gas,  has promised to pay the bill but says the reduction in gas output from Russia is not a major issue since the winter in that generally cold nation has been mild. Some believe Russia’s move was meant to show the region that she plans on continuing Putin’s strong hand. Russia and the Ukraine have a long history of tension culminating in Stalin’s decimation of the population of this largely agricultural country in the 1930s when he starved between seven and nine million Ukrainians after they failed to embrace his policies.

The closing of the oil spiket comes on the heels of the election in Russia of a new President, Dmitry Medvedev, who promises to have a more aggressive foreign policy. Anti-government rallies and dissent have been quashed in the wake of the election. Opposition parties have vocally referred to the election as a sham. Protests from  pro-Putin youths known as the Nashi rallying in front of the US Embassy against the occupation of Iraq and the US’s recognition of Kosovar independence were allowed to commence. Russia  historically has had strong ties with Serbia, the Baltic nation that recently lost the mostly Muslim state of Kosovo. Russia, no stranger to aggression throughout its long history, continues to flex its muscle in the region. The Cold War may be in the history books but that does not mean Russia as a Eurasian power has faded as well.