Jaded Sage:

History is circuitous. Go back a hundred and ten years and you will find some eerie correlations with modern events.  Most who know their history will tell you the explosion of the USS Maine in Havana Harbor was the cause of the Spanish-American War. To a large extend it was the cause. But ask what caused the ship to explode and the the story gets muddier. The press certainly played a role in stoking the flames of war. William Randolph Hearst is believed to have wired the artist Frederick Remington in Cuba with the line, “You supply the pictures and I’ll supply the war.” Stories of Spanish atrocities there were popular in the “yellow press” of the day. The Cuban revolutionaries were seen in America as later day patriots.

When the US military used the destruction of the USS Maine as a causus belli against Spain, our cause seemed to be just. Not only were we shaking off the remnants of European tyranny in the Western Hemisphere but we were freeing an oppressed people a few short miles from our shore. Cuba Libre! The Spanish were easily routed from the last vestiges of their empire and their colonies became American spoils. The global political climate, however, did not involve altruism for altruism’s sake. Manifest destiny seemed to no longer be bound by the limits of seas and oceans. The Cubans (along with the Filipinos) soon realized that one colonizer had been replaced by another. Though tucked neatly in the Cuban Constitution like a thorn on a rose bush, the Platte Amendment set the stage for a long US commitment in Cuba, one in which the Cubans played a secondary role in ruling their own nation. The results of such heavy handedness are still being felt. A Fidel Castro would never had risen in an independent and democratic Cuba.

In recent weeks we have seen similar vestiges of century old polices reemerge. The Iraqi President Nuri Al-Maliki is currently negotiating a new security policy with the US over America’s long term commitment in Iraq. The current policy, as outlined within the UN, expires at the end of this year and the Iraqis are balking at the idea of an extended US presence in Iraq in its current form. One of the key sticking points is the number of bases that would be allowed to field US troops. Malaki wishes to scale down that number. Another issue is the extra-legality of US and mercenary forces in Iraq. Currently the members of the American military and their support forces are not bound by Iraqi legal jurisdictions. The Iraqis want to see a change in this policy. At odds, also, is the number of US combat troops that will be allowed to remain in Iraq and the free will of their commanders to initiate combat operations without consent of the Iraqi authorities.

On one hand these negotiations are good things. It shows the Iraqis are beginning to exert their political will. On the other hand, the fact the Bush Administration is butting heads with them over these issues leads one to wonder what intentions does the US have for Iraq and what was the real reason why we invaded. There used to be the mantra, “When they stand up, we will stand down.” If the Iraqis are calling for the draw down of US bases and forces, isn’t that what we have hoped for all along? The birth of the new Iraq was so tumultuous. Let’s not botch the end game as well and leave the nation bitter like Cuba in the wake of the Spanish-American War. A strong political will by the Maliki government is a gift and it is time the Bush Administration accepts it.

Death to America! It is the chant that is synonymous with Iran. With Saddam toppled and the North Koreans actively discussing stepping down from their nuclear program the final member of the "Axis of Evil" remains Iran. Their president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has called for the destruction of Israel. This in turn has led to statements out of Tel Aviv that caused a jolt to the markets on Friday. Recently a movie entitled Charlie Wilson’s War told the story of a Congressman who pulled for the arming of the Mujahadeen in Afghanistan during the Soviet invasion. The lessons from this movie tell only half the story.

Lost in all the debate about what to do about Iran is a forgotten component to the history of the region. For this we must go back over half a century. Up through WW II Iran had been controlled by England. Their vast oil assets were managed by the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (despite its name the company paid only a small pittance to the ruling elite of Iran and kept the huge profits in British hands). When Aramco (the Arab American Oil Company) was formed in Saudi Arabia the profits were shared 50-50. Following WW II the Iranian leadership and the multitude of Iranians wished for a similar deal with AIOC. When they were rebuffed by the British a new Iranian leader stepped forward. Mohammed Mossadeq was elected by the Iranian Parliament. Mossedeq was the leader of the Iranian National Front, a liberal, nationalist, social democratic organization that wished to bring democracy to Iran and strengthen itself by nationalizing its oil reserves.  Soon after being elected Prime Minister in 1951 Mossedeq and the Iranian Parliament passed the Oil Nationalization Act. The British protested vehemently, first to the UN and the World Court and then proceeded to pull their technicians out, leaving Iran with lots of oil but no specialists to extract and refine it. After much debate within Britain, they decided to initiate a coup d’etat but the Iranians caught wind of it and expelled all the English diplomatic corps which stopped the coup before it could begin. 1951 turned into 1952 and this was an election year in the US. The Truman administration refused to act alongside Britain. But the new Eisenhower administration was different. The Secretary of State was John Foster Dulles.  Dulles had been a lawyer for large multi-national corporations prior to joining the incoming administration and he was sympathetic to the British and the AIOC’s cause. Though democratic, the Mossadeq government with their oil nationalization program smelled of communism. Dulles (aided by his brother Allen) took on the cause of overthrowing the Iranian government. Code named Ajax, Dulles chose the great grandson of President Teddy Roosevelt, Kermit Roosevelt to initiate the coup. Hatched in the basement of the US embassy in Tehran, the overthrow of a democratic Iran succeeded and the Shah of Iran, Mohammed Reza was installed as the new dictatorship. The Shah of Iran ruled harshly until 1979 when the Islamic Revolution swept through the country led by the aging Ayatollah Khomeini. Among the acts initiated by the supporters of the fanatical religious leader; the takeover of the US embassy. Why? Because these new leaders believed the US would again try to oust the fledgling government from the basement of the embassy just as they did in 1953. The ramifications of Operation Ajax are profound. As the radical government of Iran takes hold in the months following the revolution, Saddam Hussein seizes the opportunity to invade Iran as he views incorrectly a weak oil rich neighbor. The Soviet Union, fearing a spread of radical Islam through their southern republics invaded Afghanistan to begin its halt there before it could infect its own possessions. The decade long war weakened the Soviet Union but in the process the US armed the mujahadeen, the very same militants which would become Al-Qaida and the Taliban. And now we are faced with a government in Iran that is politically hostile to the US and eyes a nuclear program. What would the climate be in the Middle East if we had just kept our grubby little hands to ourselves. Sometimes you must be weary of the unintended consequences. This seems to be a lesson that Americans have a tough time learning.

So Oregon holds a warm place in my heart as everyone knows and today the Beaver State is spotlighted in the primary process. This weekend Obama held a huge rally in Portland where over 70,000 people were in attendance. This was the largest gathering to date and what makes this even more unusual is Oregon is predominately White. In fact African Americans weren’t even allowed residency status until the 1920s. Known as the Exclusion Law, Oregon chose to be free of the slavery issue altogether in the mid-19th century by simply keeping Blacks out of the sate. To see the Northwest’s rather contentious race history click HERE.  This shows how much Oregon has changed, especially west of the Cascades. The Democratic race that never seems to end rambles on.

The credit for the following belongs greatly to my old man.

As Bush spoke in front of the Knesset this week he invoked the preface to WW II. I have thought a lot the past few days about the idiotic comments of perhaps America’s most idiotic president and would like to set the record straight for a man who most likely doesn’t read a lot of history.

When Chamberlain met with Hitler in 1938, Britain was trying desperately not to be plunged into another war; a war they were in no way prepared for nor had the stomach to initiate. WW I was still fresh on their minds and the bad taste the Great War left in their mouths made them less powerful. As the Prime Minister of Britain met with the Chancellor of Germany it was from a position of weakness. The British military (navy excluded) had been downsized in the decades following 1918 and the army they did have was spread all over their empire. By 1938 the Germans had long since defied the Versailles Treaty and were on a war economy. These two powers were going in separate directions. Germany was meeting from a position of strength and Britain was meeting from a position of weakness.

If Obama or McCain sits down with Iran, North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela, Hamas or any other two bit dictator they will not be Chamberlain. The US spends well over $400 billion a year on its military. In 2005 the US military budget was nearly as much as the rest of the world COMBINED and eight times larger than China’s defense spending. This just shows you how much of an idiot Bush is for making that same old sad WW II analogy of appeasement. To make matters worse, this same President proceeds to Saudi Arabia, a country who requires our military technology to keep their people in line, and begs them if they could do us a favor and up the oil production. Our allies in the Gulf merely brush the President of the free world aside like a bum on the curb with a tin cup. Most conservatives would tell the bum to go get a job. Well I’m telling the bum to get working on an energy policy where we don’t have to be beholden to any dictator. Who is the true appeaser?

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My new bumper sticker for the week:

Purge your Sins, Conservatives. Vote Obama

I read lots of history and political science books. In fact, I haven’t read a book of fiction in about 10 years. I seldom read books written by politicians or agenda driven hacks such as Limbaugh, Carville or O’Reilly. My dad bought me Obama’s last book, The Audacity of Hope, and I read it. I figured if I am going to vote for the guy I would like to know how the guy thinks. It is a great book not just because I agree with him on most issues but because the book is written with a calm practicality. This is why I tell people who are negatively affected by Obama’s preacher to read Obama’s book or listen to the temperament with which he speaks.

Recently I learned Barack Obama’s favorite book is Doris Kearns Goodwin’s Team of Rivals, a book about Abraham Lincoln and those who first ran against him in the Republican Party and then were brought in to assist Lincoln in America’s greatest challenge during the 19th Century. I wanted to know why Obama chose this book to lead his list. Though I am early into the book I quickly realized why the Illinois senator coveted this book beyond the fact Lincoln was a senator from the same state. Goodwin writes as she refers to Abraham Lincoln in his primary run in 1860:

…in an age when speech-making prowess was central to political success, when the spoken word filled the air “from sun-up til sundown”, “Lincoln’s stirring oratory had earned the admiration of a far flung-audience who had either heard him speak or read his speeches in the paper.

Goodwin later continues:

…Lincoln clearly understood that he was “new in the field,” that outside of Illinois he was not “the first choice of a very great many.” His political experience on the national level consisted of two failed Senate races and a single term in Congress that had come to an end nearly a dozen years earlier. By contrast, the three other contenders for the nomination were household names in Republican circles.

If you can get your hands on a copy of Team of Rivals and enjoy reading detailed history, do so. The depth at which Goodwin paints Lincoln and those who would fill out his cabinet is astonishing. Whether Obama has a fraction of the ability of Lincoln is to be seen, but the fact that he is reading his history and learning from the greats should give comfort to many. 

I leave you with an excerpt from a campaign rally in the capital of Oregon yesterday. Listen to the manner and dignity with which Obama answers the woman’s question. With how big a brush would you like to paint Obama’s relationship with his pastor when you hear this?