In the past month, Yemen has burst on the media scene after disenfranchised Nigerian, Umar Abdulmutallab, attempted to blow up a Christmas Day flight from the Netherlands to Detroit by enclosing explosives in his skivvies. Abdulmutallab was trained and financed by Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), a splinter group that has found refuge in Yemen’s rugged geography and absence of an effective central government.

Yemen teeters on economic and political collapse in the aftermath of two decades of regional turmoil. In 1990, the Yemen government chose to sympathize with Saddam Hussein’s Kuwaiti incursion. An angry Saudi Arabia pulled funding from Yemen and expelled Yemeni workers from the kingdom which resulted in widespread unemployment in a country largely devoid of jobs.The Yemen currency, the rial, went into freefall. Prior to 1990, the rial exchanged at a rate of 10 rials to the dollar. Today the rial trades at 205 which has resulted in disastrous inflation.  As the Saudis turned off the aid spicket, Arab teachers from Egypt, Syria, Palestine and Jordan among others, that formed the backbone of Yemen’s education system, went home. Yemen’s fledgling school system has never recovered.   

Like in many Middle Eastern countries, corruption is rampant. At every level, from huge internal infrastructure projects down to the students who wish to miss a day of school to help their family in the fields, baksheesh (a bribe) is the mechanism for its implementation.

Ali Abdullah Saleh, the President of Yemen, has been in power since the 1970s and he aims to install his son, Ahmed, as his successor. Succession wears many hats in modern Yemen history. Under the Yemen Imam, the successor had to be a Sayyid, or a descendant of the Prophet Mohammed. These Zaydi leaders (a branch of the Shia sect) ruled Yemen for generations and were chosen from Yemen’s northern tribal lands. The last three Imams departed from the selection process in determining their successor and chose their sons as heirs. This upset many among their traditional supporters. The civil war that raged in Yemen throughout most of the 1960s was supposed to change all that. A republic emerged and the old ways of the Imamate were abandoned. Saleh, a Zaydi but not a Sayyid, has dominated contemporary Yemen but his power base has shrunk throughout his reign.

Yemeni oil reserves, which were not large by the region’s standards to begin with, have largely dried up. The country currently wages a war against a traditionalist Zaydi group in the north known as the Houthis. Southern Yemen has increasingly called for succession;  South Yemen was annexed in 1994 by a stronger and more populous North Yemen. Since 2001, Al Qaida has gained ground in Yemen. Osama Bin Laden’s family originated in Yemen in the southern province of Hadramout in the village of Wadi Doan. It is in this region along with the eastern reaches of Yemen where AQAP resides.

Besides being the poorest nation on the Arabian Peninsula, Yemen faces many other challenges. The country is ravaged by the chewing of qat, a mild stimulant that saps not only the drive of the population but also its water supply. Much of the water used for irrigation is filtered to moisten the roots of the qat fields. Some analysts project the capital of Yemen, Sana’a, could exhaust its water supply within the next ten years. Yemeni farmers make more off of qat than they could off of other staple crops but qat is not exported and thus the nation loses out on hard currency that could be obtained through the growing of foodstuffs. This further exacerbates the dwindling value of the rial. Yemen once was a thriving coffee exporter. In fact the word mocha derives from the Yemen port of Mokha from which large amounts of coffee were exported during the Imamate era. These days, Yemen exports only the labor of its young men.

Finally, the one attraction that Yemen has to offer is also in jeopardy in the post-9/11 world: tourism. Yemen, with its “skyscrapers” of earth, its welcoming people and a culture tied so closely to its ancient heritage, radiates an aura of the exotic unlike any place on the earth. But as western tourism associates Yemen more with the dangerous rather than as an alluring destination, the nation loses out once again on the wealth that can assist in rectifying its problems.

The plane that carried the potential suicide bomber, Umar Abdulmutallab, was headed for Detroit. This should not be lost on those who know about Arab demographics. The largest population of Yemen-Americans lives in the Detroit suburb of Dearborn, Michigan. If Abdulmutallab would have succeeded on Christmas Day, he could  have easily killed Yemeni Americans that day.

The Obama Administration has insisted that Israel freeze settlement activity in the West Bank. A significant Israeli diplomat dared to speak out on how Israel’s failure to implement a settlement freeze is hurting their relationship with their most important ally. He was recalled. Let’s keep an eye on what happens to Mr. Tamir.

By Barak Ravid, Haaretz, August 9, 2009

The Foreign Ministry on Saturday summoned for consultation a senior Israeli diplomat who in a confidential memo criticized the government for harming ties with the U.S. last week.

A ministry statement said that Israel’s consul-general in Boston, Nadav Tamir, would arrive in Jerusalem next week to give a clarification to the ministry’s director-general.

The memo, which was addressed to the Foreign Ministry in Jerusalem, stressed that the public spat with the U.S. over the issue of a settlements freeze has alienated a significant number of American Jewish supporters.

Tamir, a veteran well respected diplomat, wrote the memo under the heading “melancholy thoughts on Israel-U.S. relations.”

Tamir’s missive is considered unusual given the blunt, pointed nature of the criticism against the premier’s policies.

“The manner in which we are conducting relations with the American administration is causing strategic damage to Israel,” Tamir wrote. “The distance between us and the U.S. administration has clear consequences for Israeli deterrence.”

“There are American and Israeli political elements who oppose [U.S. President Barack] Obama on an ideological basis and who are ready to sacrifice the special relationship between the two countries for the sake of their own political agendas,” the consul general in Boston wrote.

“There has always been a discrepancy in the approaches of both states [on the issue of settlements], but there was always a level of coordination between the governments,” Tamir wrote. “Nowadays, there is a sense in the United States that Obama is forced to deal with the obduracy of the governments in Iran, North Korea, and Israel.”

“The administration is making an effort to lower the profile of the disagreements, and yet it is [Israel] that is the source which is highlighting the differences,” Tamir wrote.

Tamir accused Netanyahu of endangering American Jewish backing for Israel by publicly sparring with the Obama administration over construction of Jewish housing in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

A spokesperson for Netanyahu issued a statement to Channel 10 which accused Tamir of violating protocol by expressing “political views” against the premier.

Tamir refused a Haaretz request for comment. The Israeli consulate in Boston said the memorandum is an internal Foreign Ministry document that was not for the media’s consumption.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Yigal Palmor told the Associated Press late Thursday, “We don’t comment on leaked reports.”

In a bid to jumpstart the moribund Middle East peace process, the Obama administration has repeated its demand that Israel cease construction in West Bank settlements. The policy is a sharp departure from the tone and substance of Israel-U.S. relations during the presidency of George W. Bush.

The region’s only democracy Israel’s proponents decry. Is this the type of democracy we want to support? It is time to cut loose this alliance.

The great progressive writer Randolph Bourne once said, “Diplomacy is a disguised war, in which states seek to gain by barter and intrigue, by the cleverness of arts, the objectives which they would have to gain more clumsily by means of war.” The foundations for the Obama foreign policy are beginning to take shape. President Obama’s speech in Cairo last month had an amazing ripple effect. There is little doubt the internal strife in Iran that ensued was impacted by the speech indirectly. The conservative government in Iran could not successfully paint the uprising as the implicit work of the US following the sham election of Ahmedinejad. If you recall, the Iranian government tried to point the finger at Britain in a throwback move of a long dead age. With no true “Satan” nation to blame, the fire of the opposition continues to smolder.

Last week, George Mitchell visited Damascus in a bid to revive the Mideast peace process by greasing the wheels of the stubborn. Though no ground breaking discussions were involved, a new dialogue has begun with the Arab state. The US has imposed sanctions on Syria for their continued support of terrorists groups, primarily those residing in Lebanon. Syria has long been seen as a pariah in the region but will be a significant player if there is ever to be peace in the region. Mitchell’s visit is the Obama administration’s effort to reach out to nations that previously were seen as rogues in an effort to move them toward dialogue and moderation.

Israel is also being forced to react. The Obama position on stopping settlements in the occupied territories is causing tensions within the Jewish state. 1,500 right wing protestors marched in front of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office to show their opposition to any proposed halt to settlements. Contact and pressure from Washington, being applied at the same time, is starting to move the rusted gears of Mideast peace. The new game of diplomacy is being played out with tact and resolve. Don’t expect grandiose results, however. The region has never evolved that way.

In the meantime Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently finished her tour of South Asia. Though not covered in great detail by the US media, the Clinton visit was seen as extremely constructive. The US would very much like India to be a strong ally in combating terrorism and preventing nuclear proliferation. Throughout the post WW II period India had carried out a cautious relationship with the US. Only in the last two decades has the relationship between the US and India turned a corner. To cement the strong ties that now bind the two countries, Obama has invited Prime Minister Singh to be the first leader to be his state guest later in 2009. The US is also selling space technology and fighter jets to India as well as allowing US companies to assist in the construction of two nuclear power plants. There is a peace process that needs to be resolved in South Asia as well. India and Pakistan have drifted farther apart in recent months after the Mumbai terror attacks were proven to have their roots in Pakistan.

Though the US is currently engaged in two wars, on the periphery the American government is initiating a sweeping diplomatic blanket that is changing not only how the US operates but also the image that is projected in much of Asia.  These calculated maneuvers are allowing the momentum in the region to move away from extremism and calming the waters for the advances we all hope will blossom in the coming years.

Recently fifty four Israeli soldiers were interviewed by an Israeli organization known as Breaking the Silence. These soldiers told of their orders and activities while invading Gaza. Their tactics in many cases were nothing a moral army should be proud of.  Using white phosphorous, utilizing Palestinian civilians as forced scouts and even using the locals as human shields were just some of the testimony that came out of these interviews. What makes these accounts controversial is they were done anonymously to protect the Israeli soldiers from prosecution within Israel. A very balanced look at this report was written by Josh Mitnick of the Christian Science Monitor. Specifics of the treatment of Gazans at the hands of the Israelis leaked out of the Strip during what the Israelis dubbed Operation Cast Lead despite Israel’s media lock down during the offensive. The “Breaking the Silence” report was published Wednesday and just one day later a US Jewish group contested the accounts of the Gaza War with their own web site. The web site is sponsored by a pro-Israel lobby group Stand With Us International. Shouldn’t a counter to this report come from Israel and not from the US? This just goes to show how thick we are in the morass of Israeli domestic policy, never mind foreign policy.  Though these assertions made by Israeli soldiers are not flattering (indeed in most western armies they would be criminal), at least they are revealed for the world to dissect. The transparency of nations is something all countries should aspire to become. Unfortunately for Israel their behavior in recent decades during armed conflict has been less than chivalrous. The Breaking the Silence report can be read in its entirety here.

Saddam Hussein spoke to his captors about the reasons why he danced around weapons inspectors in the run up to the Iraq War. It further shows the shortsidedness of the Bush policy and its failing to understand how Iraq, sitting on the Sunni-Shia fault line, served as a buffer against a resurgent Iran.

Documents Show Iraqi Dictator’s Fears

By SCOTT SHANE

WASHINGTON — In a series of interrogations before his execution, Saddam Hussein told an F.B.I. agent that on the eve of the 2003 American invasion, Iraq was trapped between United Nations orders to demonstrate that it had disarmed and a fear that appearing too weak would invite attack from its powerful neighbor and foe, Iran. More

Reza Aslan informs us of the beginning of a strike in Iran which is wrapped in an obscure religious holiday in his latest, “Iran Goes on Strike”. It is a great read.

A massive sandstorm swept into Tehran Monday morning, blanketing the streets in a dark and dreamy haze. The tops of buildings, where, last night, the protest calls of “God is great!” rang out for the 21^st consecutive day, are barely visible. Most of Tehran’s bustling downtown appears abandoned. The air quality is so bad that people say it is difficult to breathe. An eerie calm has descended upon the city. More

The momentum we are seeing in Iran these last few days is fascinating. Does anyone think this could have happened if President Bush was in office? If you remember Bush classified Iran as one of the “Axis of Evil”. This further isolated Iran and helped lead to a little known hard line mayor of Tehran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, to be elected President of Iran. Just in this year we have seen Barack Obama refer to the Persian nation as the Islamic Republic of Iran and stress through the campaign and now as President that the US should open up dialogue with Iran. No threats, no bullets, just an open hand. What do we see in the streets of Iran? The seeds of rebellion? Perhaps. Time will tell but what we do know is Iran has a very young population. Sixty percent of the population is under 28 years old, thanks in large degree to the devastating impact of the Iran-Iraq War. Iran is also the most pro-American nation in the Middle East. There are as many as 600,000 people living in Los Angeles of Iranian heritage alone (exiles of the Islamic Revolution) and many of them have family living back in Iran. Many don’t know that after 9/11 the only people to hold vigils for the victims in the Muslim world was Iran.

The disputed election has been covered in great detail in the news but the undercurrent of the scorn is much deeper. Though violence is a terrible thing, the misstep made by the Iranian authorities is a good thing from the West’s point of view. Day by day as the protests have continued the people are breaking down the validity of the current government. Despite the outcome of this crisis, Iran will never be the same. The youthful Iranian people are ready for the old guard to crumble and desire a new relationship with the west and especially the United States and there should be no doubt they see in the new US President an opportunity to change the dynamics of the relationship. The election in Iran, for the first time since the 1979 revolution, did not make the US the boogie man. The protesters in the streets are not shouting “Death to America” they are shouting “Death to the Dictators”.

It is true Mousavi is not much different than Ahmadinejad but the protest movement in Iran is much larger than both men. It is a bit premature but if the protests result in a liberal revolution and Iran goes from being an enemy to an ally of the West you can thank mismanagement by the Iranian government, repression of Islamic theocratic rule and the change in tactics by a new US President. The next two days may be crucial. Tomorrow the opposition crowds could be significant as Mousavi has announced a “day of mourning” which was a tactic used by those during the Islamic Revolution to gather unlawfully. Who is going to assault mourners? And Friday, the Islamic Sabbath, is believed to be the largest protest gathering thus far. We will all be watching…and hoping.

Iran’s Latest Protests Are Seen as the Toughest to Stop: NY Times

Iranian protesters’ slogans target Khamenei as the real enemy: Guardian UK

What’s behind Iran’s power struggle: CS Monitor

President Obama is giving the speech tomorrow that President Bush should have given on October 11, 2001. Though he won’t alter events on the ground in the Middle East immediately, Obama will cause the minds of many Muslims to shift. America chose to deal with terrorism by blindly flailing with a sharpened spear and in the process wounding many innocents. President Obama understands the Islamic World. Because he has a unique background, the President will be able to say things that his predecessors could not.

The most pressing issue in the Muslim World involves the Holy Land. The Israeli-Palestinian issue, however, is both a serious issue and a chimera in the region. There is no historical doubt that the Palestinians have been wronged in almost every occasion since 1919. Their ancestral homeland has been whittled away from them through peace treaty, League of Nations treaty, British hegemony, United Nations treaty, Jordanian hegemony and finally Israeli aggression. Their recent historical plight is a tragic consequence at being so near land which is of such religious relevance and being unable to defend itself due to poor and fractious leadership. But Palestine’s tragedy is also deeply rooted in the internal politics of her Arab brothers. Palestine’s condition also serves the interest of the despotic leaders who sit on Arab thrones. The images of Arabs being bloodied by Jewish guns, shells and bombs draws the attention away from the ills of the region’s Arab governments. It is a means of redirecting the rage. It serves another purpose also. Not only does it focus Arab passions away from their own failed governments but it also focuses the West’s attention away from the abysmal human rights violations being perpetrated from Arab capitals. America has simply created a new scene into the Middle Eastern production. The spotlights seem to shift these days between Gaza, The West Bank, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Corrupt Middle Eastern governments now have many outlets to direct the attention of their unhappy populace. Instead of spending lavishly within their petroleum empires, could not the rich oil states redirect significant resources into Palestine and lift out of poverty and destitution the 7.5 million Palestinians living in the West Bank and Gaza Strip? If the Arabs were truly concerned about their oppressed brothers in Palestine, this would have been done long ago. Look at how the wealthy Jews in the West have assisted the zionist cause in Israel. Wouldn’t it make sense for the Muslims to do the same for their brethren in Palestine?

I am sure President Obama will bring the failures of the Arab World to light in his speech tomorrow. He will state the fact that America has not always made the best decisions but the Muslim World cannot blame all the ills of the world on Jews and America. Islamic terrorism is being cultivated in the dictatorial petrie dishes in the Middle East (albeit warmed under the light of Zionism and American malfeasance). President Obama has rightly begun to push back on Israel by stating they should freeze construction on West Bank settlements. This stance against Israel has not been greeted warmly by many Congressmen on both sides of the aisle. The Jewish lobby is strong in the halls of Congress. Prior to Obama’s visit with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, 76 out of the 100 Senators sent a message to the President advising him to mind the risks to Israel over any Middle East peace accords. President Obama is not just saying what is right, he is doing what is right. It will now be up to Israel, the Arab States and, most of all, the Muslim people now to respond in kind.

You get the feeling this is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to Iraq. So much for loyalty to country.