Jaded Sage:

I read lots of history and political science books. In fact, I haven’t read a book of fiction in about 10 years. I seldom read books written by politicians or agenda driven hacks such as Limbaugh, Carville or O’Reilly. My dad bought me Obama’s last book, The Audacity of Hope, and I read it. I figured if I am going to vote for the guy I would like to know how the guy thinks. It is a great book not just because I agree with him on most issues but because the book is written with a calm practicality. This is why I tell people who are negatively affected by Obama’s preacher to read Obama’s book or listen to the temperament with which he speaks.

Recently I learned Barack Obama’s favorite book is Doris Kearns Goodwin’s Team of Rivals, a book about Abraham Lincoln and those who first ran against him in the Republican Party and then were brought in to assist Lincoln in America’s greatest challenge during the 19th Century. I wanted to know why Obama chose this book to lead his list. Though I am early into the book I quickly realized why the Illinois senator coveted this book beyond the fact Lincoln was a senator from the same state. Goodwin writes as she refers to Abraham Lincoln in his primary run in 1860:

…in an age when speech-making prowess was central to political success, when the spoken word filled the air “from sun-up til sundown”, “Lincoln’s stirring oratory had earned the admiration of a far flung-audience who had either heard him speak or read his speeches in the paper.

Goodwin later continues:

…Lincoln clearly understood that he was “new in the field,” that outside of Illinois he was not “the first choice of a very great many.” His political experience on the national level consisted of two failed Senate races and a single term in Congress that had come to an end nearly a dozen years earlier. By contrast, the three other contenders for the nomination were household names in Republican circles.

If you can get your hands on a copy of Team of Rivals and enjoy reading detailed history, do so. The depth at which Goodwin paints Lincoln and those who would fill out his cabinet is astonishing. Whether Obama has a fraction of the ability of Lincoln is to be seen, but the fact that he is reading his history and learning from the greats should give comfort to many. 

I leave you with an excerpt from a campaign rally in the capital of Oregon yesterday. Listen to the manner and dignity with which Obama answers the woman’s question. With how big a brush would you like to paint Obama’s relationship with his pastor when you hear this?

As we know Barack Obama is attracting unprecedented numbers of Black Americans to the polls during the primaries. The notion of a Black President enfranchises these voters in ways never seen before. Barack Obama, the junior Senator from Illinois, seems to have an affect on Black voters like that other Illinois politician, Abe Lincoln had in the 19th century. Obama is the zeta to Lincoln’s alpha; the pinnacle of nearly 150 years of the struggle to be free but never quite equal might end with the 2008 election. If Obama does win the Democratic Primary, what impact will he have beyond the Presidential race? If large number of Black voters swamp the polls on November 2, what will be the secondary effect? If Blacks go to the polls for Obama it can only help incumbents like Mary Landrieu of Louisiana. Her seat in the Senate is the one most in jeopardy to be lost by the Democrats. Landrieu, however, is playing it close to the vest. She has not endorsed either candidate thus far. You would think that in her most private moments she cheers on Obama like a rabid NASCAR fan. Another key seat up for grabs is Trent Lott’s old slot in Mississippi. Ronnie Musgrove (D) will be running against Roger Wicker (R). Already said to be a close race, a huge African-American turnout could turn the tide in a very Red State. The most interesting race that involves the “Obama Factor” will be in Alabama. Jeff Sessions, a two term Senator, would normally be a shoe-in but recent events swirling around the incarceration of former Alabama Governor Don Siegelman around spurious information and involving Karl Rove aired recently on CBS’ 60 Minutes. If you didn’t catch the episode watch it here. Jeff Sessions pressured CBS to not air the program. Why would he do this if he has nothing to hide? Sessions will be running against a Black female candidate named Vivian Figures. What will Obama’s impact be on this race if he is on the Presidential ballot in November? Will Red States turn black in 2008 under the weight of interested African American voters? If so, the party will owe a debt of gratitude to them along with Barack Obama for making it possible. Never in the history of this country have African Americans been in a position to have this much power…and this much equality.  It has been a long time in coming.

Democrats Dream of a Filibuster Proof Senate

Barack Obama has found much success this weekend. After winning Nebraska, Washington, Louisiana, Virgin Islands on Saturday and Maine today the senator from Illinois heads into Tuesday’s Chesapeake Primary with momentum. He is expected to do well in Virginia, Maryland and DC as well. The Clinton campaign is in crisis mode. Her camp manager has stepped down after not wrapping up the nomination on Super Tuesday. It appears the strategy was to have a hold of the Democratic race after last Tuesday’s big primaries. Now the Clinton strategy must be rearranged at a time when the news for them is not good. This weekends primaries and caucuses along with this coming Tuesday’s have all favored Obama. The talk now is the Clinton campaign is eyeing the big state primaries in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania where her 50/50 supporters are more numerous. The 50/50 are those over 50 years old and those who make under $50,000 a year. Along with female voters, these are the core of Hillary’s support. I wonder if waiting for the big states to roll around might be a strategy of “Giuliani light”, referring to the former Mayor’s plan to not compete in the early primary states and prepare for the later primaries in Florida and then Super Tuesday. As other’s won these early primaries, Giuliani was simply forgotten. As Obama rolls through smaller states throughout the nation this weekend and the following days and weeks, will voters not see Hillary as viable? This is the burning question.

_____________________________________________

On the Republican side the returns this weekend show the complete dissatisfaction of core conservatives with their candidate. With Romney dropping out of the race so that “we won’t surrender to terror”, Republicans in Kansas and Louisiana chose Huckabee over the candidate that is certain, short of a massive coronary, to win the nomination. Perhaps that is the “miracle” in which Huckabee is referring. In Washington McCain received 26%, Huckabee 24% and Ron Paul (yes, that kooky son-of-a-bitch) received 21% (most of those must have come from the eastern part of the state, next to Idaho). So McCain is competing with an ex-minister who wants to amend the Constitution to outlaw both gay marriage and abortion and also a crazy fringe Representative from Texas. There was a time when Republicans would get behind the anointed candidate. Bush’s disastrous presidency along with McCain’s go-it-alone Congressional history have turned the Vietnam hero into a pariah in his own party.

_____________________________________________

Iraq, on the ground, is going well. The momentum the surge has instilled is really breathtaking. But the Iraqi government is as worthless as any government in the region. There is no conciliation going on. In fact as the US is creating peaceful sectors in the Sunni region of Al-Anbar, the Iraqi government won’t fill the economic void because the Shia dominated politicians don’t want to legitimize the Sunni militias that are holding the line.

Read more details from an excellent article written by an ex-marine, Bing West.

In the meantime the Kurds are more and more acting like an autonomous country. Most Kurds don’t even refer to themselves as Iraqi any longer. Their policies have been so independent minded lately that many believe they have overplayed their hand. The Kurds have begun to make their own oil deals and the Shia and the Sunni Iraqis have protested this move, perhaps the only time when the two contentious factions have seen an issue eye to eye.

Not that I really give a rat’s hiney about what Rush Limbaugh says or thinks but there is so much flip flopping and moving away from principles going on in the GOP I thought the champion of Conservative radio should get into the act as well. Bob Dole has reprimanded the host for attacking McCain on the eve of the Arizona Senator seizing the reins of the Republican party. Limbaugh has been ruthless in his dressing down of McCain in recent months due to his lack of Conservative credentials and the establishment is beginning to put pressure on all those in right wing talk radio to cease and desist. Let’s listen together as the mouthpiece of the right first simmers his attacks of McCain, then shifts gears as the Democratic nominee is finally chosen (maybe not until late summer) and then begins to hail McCain’s strengths. Let us liberals cram the flip flopping issue in the faces of these hypocrites just like they did in ‘04.

How about that amazing catch made by New York Giant’s wide receiver David Tyree? Facing 3rd down and five yards to go QB Eli Manning hurled the ball down field and Tyree jumped high in a crowd and came down, pressing the ball against his helmet. That has to be the greatest catch in Super Bowl history. Great stuff.

Now we can focus on Super Tuesday now that Super Sunday is over. On the Democratic side, Obama is surging. The question remains if he has surged enough. The conventional wisdom is Obama does well when casual voters have had time to hear his message. Have enough of them had a chance to do so before Tuesday? There are 22 states that hold Democratic primaries in two days. Hillary Clinton holds an edge in Massachusetts (despite both Senators Kerry and Kennedy endorsing Obama), New York, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. Obama is favored in Georgia, Alabama, Illinois, Kansas (at least they are good for something), Minnesota, North Dakota, Idaho and Alaska. The states that are too close to call are Utah, New Jersey, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, Connecticut, Delaware, California, and Missouri. Missouri will be the bell weather state as we head west. Missouri’s two key cities are at odds over the Democratic choice. Kansas City has Clinton up by 7% while St Louis favors Obama who is up by 16% there (according to the latest Zogby poll). California is the big sombrero on Tuesday. The race could not be closer there. New polls out have the race a virtual dead heat. Latino voters and women in the Golden State trend toward Clinton but the independents, the young and the super liberals (especially in the Bay area) buoy Obama. The race for the Democratic nomination will almost certainly not end Tuesday. Delegates are dealt proportionately with a hard to comprehend system that awards the delegates based on percentage of vote thresholds. To see how individual states proportion delegates click here. There should be a fairly even division of delegates if the polls are accurate (not a guarantee). A tight race just makes being a political wonk more exciting.

On the Republican side Romney is hoping to survive Super Tuesday. Romney has the vast majority of Conservatives on his side but that doesn’t seem to be enough. The fact that Huckabee is still in the race and is siphoning off many of the Christian Conservatives is not helping Romney in the least. This fact is driving the core Republicans crazy. Just look what it has done to our dear friend Ann Coulter.

Don’t you just love to see the Republican party in turmoil. Just watching McCain, Giuliani and Schwarzenegger standing together, three moderate Republicans, shows you what Bush has done to the party. McCain, who didn’t support Bush’s tax cuts, Giuliani, who makes Clinton seem like the poster child for marriage fidelity, and Schwarzenegger, who has been forced to be a liberal Republican in recent months have become the faces of winning in the GOP. All I can say is serves you right for voting for George W. These are your just desserts. Enjoy them. And your alternative is Mitt Romney. The guy who makes John Kerry’s waffling seem like a small stutter.

So the beat goes on and Tuesday should be one exciting night.

Most of the truly nutty politicians on the national stage reside in the House of Representatives. One current example of this is Randy Forbes Republican of Virginia. Mr Forbes is the sponsor of House Resolution 888 which is intended to combat what the Congressman sees as an assault on the Christian religion in America. The introduction of the bill came on the heels of H.R 847 which supported the “role played by Christians and Christianity in the founding of the United States…” and “expresses continued support for Christians in the United States.” HR 888 is a bit more bizarre than HR 847. One component in the resolution is to have the education on America’s history of religious faith taught in public schools. There is a current among right wing politics that wishes to wipe away the establishment clause of the Constitution. The scary part of HR 888 is there are 31 co-sponsors for the bill. If anything is un-American it is these zealous bastards. To read much more on the bill check out Jason Leopold’s great article below in the Baltimore Chronicle. A special thanks to Ms Hale for giving me a head’s up on the bill.

House Passes, Considers Evangelical Resolutions

Like the end of the Confederacy you will begin to see the presidential aspirations of Mike Huckabee collapse in the next three weeks. He has made some atrocious strategical decisions the past week that will doom his campaign. Governor Huckabee did a brilliant job of keeping his faith blanketed pre and post Iowa so that he appealed to many moderate and lower income Republicans. Evangelical Christians understood the underpinnings of Huckabee. This past week, however, the former Governor of Arkansas blew his cover. He pronounced there needed to be a Constitutional Amendment to make abortion illegal and to nationally outlaw same-sex marriage. This would surely galvanize his Christian base but to many on the fence, there will likely be an exodus (pardon the religious reference). True conservatives don’t like messing with the Constitution much. In the last couple days Huckabee fired off a strange statement about South Carolina’s choice to maintain the stars and bars as they see fit. I realize South Carolina is the birthplace of the Confederacy but even if you think they have a right to uphold their “battle flag”, it doesn’t play well in the vast majority of the Union and it does serve as a dividing symbol. These choices made by Mike Huckabee will marginalize his support and ultimately torpedo his bid for the White House.

In the following video notice the irony of how Joe Scarborough (host) frames the question about federalism. If you are a student of history you will be able to capture the 21st Century tinge to a 19th Century issue.

Many Republicans claim that the current election season reveals the Reagan Coalition has collapsed. The bitter and extended infighting has failed to galvanize a candidate and there seems to be no end in sight. All those running on the GOP side like to evoke the name of their idol but conservatives throughout this great land can’t quite find the “Great Communicator” in any of their candidates. Each tries to grab a hold of piece of Reagan philosophy but can’t quite retain the essence. Republicans voters are at a loss. Their candidates this season are shifty; moving in out of focus with each state primary. Most candidates evoke the words “change” but they exude status quo.

The Democrats have issues as well. Barack Obama is an amazing orator. He is able to deliver words that compel people to watch in amazement or even to cry. But the one term Senator is an empty vessel. People fill it up with their hopes and ambitions. Many people hope the intelligence exhibited by the young politician will propel him to greatness. Like many campaigns, voters are hoping that the new candidate will correct the flaws of the previous president. In 2000 America was searching for a President that was moral and would return wholesomeness to the White House. George Bush, who obviously loved his wife and was the son of George H.W. Bush, seemed to fit that mold. Never mind about the other qualities. Barack Obama is able to rectify the most significant shortcoming of President Bush, eloquence. When a candidate is eloquent it also magnifies their intelligence in the eyes of the listener. The appearance that Bush lacks intelligence is also world renown, literally. Senator Obama appears to have that base covered as well. However, when Bill Clinton said a vote for Obama was a “roll of the dice” there is some truth in that statement. We really don’t know what we will get with him because he is such an unknown.

Senator Clinton is a known quantity. Therein lies her greatest weakness. Like the current occupier of the Oval Office, she is a divider not a uniter. People associate her with her husband. The electorates’ mind is made up when it comes to Hillary. Her presidency will continue to divide the nation. Most of her opponents have her pegged as a liberal but she is less liberal than her two main rivals in the Democratic Party. She refuses to say her vote to authorize the war in Iraq was a mistake and that point alone alienates her with the more left leaning faction of her party. She is also a solid friend of the military. In fact she has received the most donations from key military industrial companies than any candidate from either party. Top military personnel who have met with her for any length of time have their skepticism swept away by her attentiveness to their requests.

The race on both sides has become a dog fight and the excitement level is unlike anything we have seen in our lifetimes since 1968. Ok, so I’m old. With Michigan for the GOP tomorrow and South Carolina and Nevada coming in rapid succession I can only think of the famous poker saying, shuffle up and deal!

*WWRD in the title means “What Would Reagan Do?”

This morning I was watching a Rudy Giuliani campaign speech from Florida. He was haranguing the Democrats (principally Hillary Clinton) about taxes. He said the Democrats would raise your taxes by 20 to 30%. If taxes were raised to that level we would be paying more than half our pay checks to the government. Obviously, even if the Democrats wanted to do that it would never be passed. What he said next should make you shudder and realize this man is not fit to lead. It is one thing to make statements about what the opposition would do, it is another to make a statement about your intent. In his own words:

With a national debt soaring past nine trillion dollars and two foreign wars to pay for how does a heavy dose of tax cuts sound?

New Hampshire is a very independent minded state. The “Granite State” was the first colony to declare independence from England. Since those colonial times the state has taken taxation seriously. Their license plates proudly boast, “Live Free or Die”. Every four years those who come to court New Hampshire must win over the masses of independents in the state and this election cycle is no different. There is an interesting dynamic however going into tomorrow’s first in the nation primary. The independents are flowing toward Barack Obama. If he was not running, those same independents would surely vote for John McCain.  In this primary, the electorate is turning blue; blue as in Democratic. The loser may well not only be Hillary Clinton but also John McCain. He is in a hotly contested race against the former governor in the neighboring state of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney and McCain have historically received support from independents. The phenomenon known as Obamamania is serving like a vacuum cleaner for those votes. McCain is currently polling above Romney but if the Senator from Arizona should end up losing in New Hampshire he can blame someone not in the Republican primary, Barack Obama. This is one surge that McCain surely doesn’t support.

New Hampshire is Turning Blue