Jaded Sage:

History is circuitous. Go back a hundred and ten years and you will find some eerie correlations with modern events.  Most who know their history will tell you the explosion of the USS Maine in Havana Harbor was the cause of the Spanish-American War. To a large extend it was the cause. But ask what caused the ship to explode and the the story gets muddier. The press certainly played a role in stoking the flames of war. William Randolph Hearst is believed to have wired the artist Frederick Remington in Cuba with the line, “You supply the pictures and I’ll supply the war.” Stories of Spanish atrocities there were popular in the “yellow press” of the day. The Cuban revolutionaries were seen in America as later day patriots.

When the US military used the destruction of the USS Maine as a causus belli against Spain, our cause seemed to be just. Not only were we shaking off the remnants of European tyranny in the Western Hemisphere but we were freeing an oppressed people a few short miles from our shore. Cuba Libre! The Spanish were easily routed from the last vestiges of their empire and their colonies became American spoils. The global political climate, however, did not involve altruism for altruism’s sake. Manifest destiny seemed to no longer be bound by the limits of seas and oceans. The Cubans (along with the Filipinos) soon realized that one colonizer had been replaced by another. Though tucked neatly in the Cuban Constitution like a thorn on a rose bush, the Platte Amendment set the stage for a long US commitment in Cuba, one in which the Cubans played a secondary role in ruling their own nation. The results of such heavy handedness are still being felt. A Fidel Castro would never had risen in an independent and democratic Cuba.

In recent weeks we have seen similar vestiges of century old polices reemerge. The Iraqi President Nuri Al-Maliki is currently negotiating a new security policy with the US over America’s long term commitment in Iraq. The current policy, as outlined within the UN, expires at the end of this year and the Iraqis are balking at the idea of an extended US presence in Iraq in its current form. One of the key sticking points is the number of bases that would be allowed to field US troops. Malaki wishes to scale down that number. Another issue is the extra-legality of US and mercenary forces in Iraq. Currently the members of the American military and their support forces are not bound by Iraqi legal jurisdictions. The Iraqis want to see a change in this policy. At odds, also, is the number of US combat troops that will be allowed to remain in Iraq and the free will of their commanders to initiate combat operations without consent of the Iraqi authorities.

On one hand these negotiations are good things. It shows the Iraqis are beginning to exert their political will. On the other hand, the fact the Bush Administration is butting heads with them over these issues leads one to wonder what intentions does the US have for Iraq and what was the real reason why we invaded. There used to be the mantra, “When they stand up, we will stand down.” If the Iraqis are calling for the draw down of US bases and forces, isn’t that what we have hoped for all along? The birth of the new Iraq was so tumultuous. Let’s not botch the end game as well and leave the nation bitter like Cuba in the wake of the Spanish-American War. A strong political will by the Maliki government is a gift and it is time the Bush Administration accepts it.

The demise of Hugo Chavez should be a goal of the United States. This left wing nut and compadre to Fidel Castro has revealed he wants to destabilize South America. In a recent attack carried out by Columbian forces, a Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Columbia (or FARC) top commander  was killed along with several of his supporters. Columbia reports there were documents recovered that revealed the Venezuelan president has bankrolled the terrorist group and there was reportedly information the group was attempting to obtain uranium. The validity of this information may be questioned but Hugo Chavez publicly mourned the death of the slain FARC leader, Raúl Reyes. Hugo Chavez has also colluded with Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa in condemning the attack. The FARC are among the most notorious rebels in South America. In Robert Kaplan’s 2005 book, Imperial Grunts, he writes about the FARC:

The FARC, with its seventeen thousand or so fighters, no longer represented the shaggy haired university idealists of the Cold War era, but a criminal army built on the forced recruitment of teenage boys and girls, in which desertion led to the slaughter of one’s family. FARC leader Manuel Marulanda, perhaps the world’s oldest living guerrilla, might still have harbored ideals. But with an income variously estimated at $500 million annually in protection money and cocaine business, the FARC was Karl Marx at the top and Adam Smith all the way down the command chain. (p.50)

It is reported that Arabs militants such as Hamas and Hezbollah are being funded by the Chavez government. Chavez is also providing secure zones for FARC from which they are trying to destabilize democratic Columbia. The US military has redoubled its efforts in Columbia under President Bush in a policy known as Plan Columbia which began in 2001. The plan has brought a level of stability to Columbia by putting pressure on rebel groups such as FARC and FLN (National Liberation Army), driving the drug trade further underground and also giving President Álvaro Uribe some breathing room. Uribe has an 80% approval rating in his own country, the highest in his five years as President. Chavez has recently called Columbia the Israel of South America because of US’s involvement there. However, Chavez’s own situation in his country has grown tenuous. Anti-FARC protests are common in Venezuela. Their brutal tactics are well known throughout the region. Since the cross border attack, Chavez has ordered troops to the border with Columbia but most see it as bluster since Chavez may not have the support of his generals to do anything drastic. Chavez is a menace and President Bush has done the right thing in bolstering Columbia’s democracy. 

America imports nearly 15% of its oil from Venezuela. Everywhere you turn it appears the snakes are rattling around the barrels. It is a further indication of the need of this country to unify around a policy that rids us of foreign oil. In the meantime Chavez’s popularity in Venezuela has waned and the US should do whatever it can to show this pariah the door.

Finding FARC

Chavez’s War Drums

Columbia Stands as a Beacon of Hope

Venezuela Mobilizes Forces to Columbian Border

Rumours of War

Bear Hug

Russia will soon have a new president. Dmitry Medvedev was hand chosen by Vladimir Putin to succeed him. In state elections today Medvedev will win in a landslide. Putin is popular in Russia these days largely due to the fact that the economy in the previously communist state is improving; some say booming. But don’t conclude Medvedev won fair and square. There were several options on the ballot but Putin’s control of the government meant access to information on these other candidates was severely limited in most cases and outright restricted in others. The one man most known in the west, Gary Kasparov the chess champion, was denied inclusion on the ballot and is one of the key opposition leaders who has called the election a “farce”. Assemblies have often been broken up by law enforcement officials within Russia and the media is run by the state and thus is pro-Putin. To watch a documentary highlighting these issues click here. Putin will be named Prime Minister and retain his authority from behind the scenes. Russia continues to struggle with letting go of authoritative government some 16 years after the passing of the Soviet Union.

Tunnel Politics

Tuesday is being called by some Super Tuesday light. With Ohio and Texas on the primary schedule both Hillary and Barack are campaigning this weekend with different goals. Senator Clinton is campaigning to hang on to any hopes of continuing the race. Many say she has to win both to remain viable, others say she must win by double digits to appear credible. The latter is highly unlikely. Senator Obama is campaigning to end the primary. A win by him in either Texas or Ohio will send his opponent “to the showers”. If he manages to win both it will bring down the curtains for sure. The Obama campaign has learned a valuable lesson from the Kerry campaign of four years ago. Whenever there is an attack from either Clinton or McCain, they waste no time in returning fire; sometimes in a matter of hours. They understand the power of the “swiftboat” and it appears, like in the famous line in Jaws, that his opponent are going to need a bigger boat.

Cold War Hangover

Recently President Bush singled out Obama’s naivete in foreign affairs by blasting his suggestion that as US president, the Illinois Senator would meet with the newly appointed leader of Cuba, Raul Castro. Bush claimed that such a meeting would give credence to the authoritarian regime. I am so sick of this administration’s callous disregard for precedents and a strange neglect of history. When Republican President Richard Nixon visited China, a move seen as one of his few achievements, China was one of the most authoritarian nations on the planet. Look at Chinese-American relations now. Granted the economic policy highly favors China and that needs to change but China has moved beyond their insular foreign policy and has begun a new movement of openness that will not be reversed. After Senators Kerry and McCain pressed the President to normalize relations with Vietnam in 1995, trade restrictions were lifted and in 2000 President Clinton became the first US President to visit the nation since the war ended. (President Nixon actually visited the Vietnam while still at war in 1969). The communist state has followed China’s lead and they have allowed free trade to flourish in this once closed country. And now there is debate over Cuba. Is there anyone who does not doubt the same result we have seen in the communist nations of China and Vietnam will also ensue in Cuba? It is time to return Cuba to the paradise it was in the 1940s. Resuming ties with the island nation will bring their society closer to ours, not vice versa.